Food and nutrition security

Abstract: Depuis maintenant une quinzaine d’années, le Sénégal a mis en place un programme de subvention d’intrants agricoles à destination de ses producteurs agricoles visant à leur fournir engrais, semences et matériel agricole. Cependant, très peu d’études ont été réalisées pour en évaluer les impacts. Ce rapport présente les résultats détaillés d’une étude visant à évaluer les effets de ce programme dans deux régions, la vallée du fleuve Sénégal et le bassin arachidier, au travers de plusieurs dispositifs de collecte de données, et notamment d’une enquête auprès des producteurs agricoles. Les résultats mettent en lumière plusieurs faiblesses du programme. La mise en œuvre du programme diffère d’une région à l’autre et les critères de sélection des bénéficiaires souffrent d’un certain flou. Les bénéficiaires du programme tendent à être sélectionnés parmi les producteurs les plus grands, mieux éduqués et bénéficiant d’un capital social plus important. L’estimation des effets du programme en prenant en compte ce biais de sélection montre bien un effet positif sur l’utilisation d’engrais inorganique, et dans le cas du bassin arachidier, également sur le recours aux semence certifiées. Cependant, aucun effet ni sur les rendements des principales cultures ni sur les performances économiques des bénéficiaires n’est observé dans les deux régions de l’étude. Cela s’explique notamment par les dysfonctionnements du programme, tels que les retards de livraison des intrants ou leur mauvaise qualité, mais aussi par un effet d’éviction sur les achats d’engrais commerciaux, notamment dans la vallée du fleuve Sénégal, qui résulte d’un ciblage inefficace des bénéficiaires. Au final, le programme de subvention des intrants agricoles ne permet pas d’augmenter la production ou le revenu des producteurs bénéficiaires. Le rapport conclut sur des recommandations pour améliorer l’efficacité de cet outil essentiel de la politique agricole Sénégalaise. [For the past fifteen years, Senegal has implemented a program to subsidize agricultural inputs for its producers with the aim of providing them with fertilizers, seeds, and agricultural equipment. However, very few studies have been conducted to evaluate its impacts. This report presents detailed results of a study aimed at assessing the effects of this program in the Senegal River Valley and the Bassin Arachidier, using several data collection mechanisms, including a survey of agricultural producers. The results highlight several weaknesses of the program. The implementation of the program varies from one region to another, and the selection criteria lack clarity. Program beneficiaries tend to be selected among the larger producers who are better educated and have greater social capital. Estimating the effects of the program while accounting for this selection bias does show a positive effect on the use of inorganic fertilizer and, in the case of the Bassin Arachidier, also on the use of certified seeds. However, no effect on the yields of the main crops nor on economic performance of farms is observed in either region. This can be explained by the program's deficiences, such as delays in input delivery or input poor quality, but also by a crowding-out effect on the purchases of commercial fertilizers, particularly in the Senegal River Valley, resulting from inefficient targeting of beneficiaries. In the end, the agricultural input subsidy program does not increase production nor the income of beneficiary producers.]

Abstract: Aquatic foods are crucial for global food and nutrition security, but overfishing has led to depleted fish stocks, threatening both food security and the environment. Here, we combine a fish stock model with a global agriculture and food market model in order to analyze scenarios involving a continuation of current fishing trends versus optimal management through maximum sustainable yield targets. Maximum sustainable yield management of overfished stocks could increase yields by 10.6 Megatons, equivalent to 12% of total catches and 6% of aquatic animal production in 2022. This would alleviate the need for aquaculture expansion by an equivalent of 3 years of growth in the aquaculture sector at its current level, and reduce meat and feed demand. Lower food prices and additional supply could enhance global food security. Conversely, continued overfishing will likely lead to lower catches over time, adding pressure to the agricultural and aquaculture sectors. Although maximum sustainable yield management is not a panacea, it represents a positive step towards achieving sustainable food production.

Abstract: Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted the global supply chains of several globally traded commodities. The repercussions for many African countries are concerning. This study assesses the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on the Kenyan economy using a computable general equilibrium model. The model is calibrated using a highly disaggregated social accounting matrix. The analysis particularly focuses on the impacts of changes in world prices for five major commodities of which Kenya is a net importer. The results show rising import price that adversely lowers Kenya's gross domestic product and household consumption. The macroeconomic impacts are particularly driven by the fertilizer and fuel commodity price changes. Activities producing agrifood commodities and providing services are highly affected. Rural households face a higher food consumer price index than their urban counterparts. Subsidizing fuel and fertilizer prices could dampen most of the adverse effects but would come at considerable fiscal costs. The government of Kenya should consider devising policies that strengthen intraregional trade, diversify import origins and improve agricultural productivity and energy efficiency.

Abstract: While the impact of agricultural inputs on crop yields has received considerable attention, their influence on nutritional outcomes has been somewhat neglected. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the role of agricultural inputs in mitigating child stunting through linear dynamic panel regressions conducted at the country level. By analysing data from approximately half of the world’s countries over a 20-years period, our findings reveal that mineral fertilizers make significant positive contributions to reducing child stunting. Other agricultural inputs, such as per-capita agricultural land and manure exhibit a positive contribution in reducing child stunting, but their statistical significance is obtained only in few models. Surprisingly, irrigation appears to have no impact on alleviating child stunting.

Abstract: The Common Agricultural Policy Strategic Plans (CSPs) of the EU Member States (MSs) introduce a new CAP delivery model for the programming period 2023-2027, establishing a common framework for CAP payments, while granting MSs the flexibility to design interventions for direct payments, sectoral interventions, and rural development tailored to the needs of their agricultural sector. This report serves a dual purpose: Firstly, it provides an overview of the CSPs Master file, which consolidates all 28 CSPs to facilitate a structured analysis of the new CAP, along with essential concepts characteristic to the CSPs. Secondly, the report presents a comparative analysis of the initially approved CSPs, focusing on the financial aspects and specifics of their implementation across MSs, as well as some insights into the contributions to organic farming. The analysis of all CSPs highlights significant diversity and heterogeneity in the interventions adopted by the MSs. The CAP is supported by 307 billion EUR, comprising 264 billion EUR from the EU Budget and 43 billion EUR from national co-financing. Direct Payments are the most dominant component, with the Basic Income Support for Sustainability remaining the most important CAP tool to support EU farmer income, accounting 51% of direct payments, followed by eco-schemes at 24%. Rural Development allocations also show considerable diversity across intervention types and MSs.

Abstract: The policy and public debate on the EU protein sector requires a comprehensive approach that includes EU plant protein production and supply, while simultaneously addressing the broader challenges and opportunities of protein demand in the food and feed sectors. Taking a food systems perspective, this report assesses synergies and trade-offs between four hypothetical scenarios. These scenarios are considered both individually and in combination, and describe possible futures for EU protein supply and demand: (i) providing specific support for protein crop production; (ii) changing livestock feed practices; (iii) restructuring the livestock herd; and (iv) transitioning towards more plant-based diets. While these scenarios are exploratory and do not prejudge policy decisions, the analysis demonstrates that joint changes on both supply and demand are required to enhance the sustainability and resilience of the EU agro-food system. The modelling results indicate that jointly addressing protein supply and demand can yield substantial environmental benefits and reduce the EU's reliance on imported feed protein. An integrated strategy is also essential to support farmers and the broader food system, realising opportunities and mitigating potential adverse impacts associated with the transition to a more sustainable protein supply and demand.

Abstract: This report analyses the farm-level data collection practices of selected public and private sustainability-related certification schemes, with the aim of providing insights into synergies and gaps for the upcoming Farm Sustainability Data Network, which will collect data on environmental and social issues. The analysis is based on online surveys, semi-semi-structured interviews and desk research carried out between June and October 2023. Out of 188 common agricultural policy (CAP) interventions associated with certification schemes within the CAP strategic plans of the Member States, 25 relevant certification schemes were pre-selected for consideration in this report. A total of 10 respondents (i.e. certification agencies and, in some cases, responsible public authorities) participated, covering 16 certification schemes, resulting in response rates of 48 % for respondents and 64 % for certification schemes. Key findings relate to the monitoring practices of operators by certification agencies, data collection methods, data sources, data management practices, data exchange and costs incurred. Respondents rated the data collection process as somewhat costly for both certification agencies and farmers. The main challenges and burdens of the data collection process identified by the respondents are also outlined. The analysis indicates that, while data on environmental and social sustainability are available, considerable efforts are required to collect quantitative data and ensure that they are consistent, digitalised and accessible. The voluntary nature of participation in certification schemes limits the representativeness of the data collected and introduces selection bias. Furthermore, increasing farmers’ understanding of the purpose and benefits of data collection is crucial for motivating farmers. Providing incentives and collaborating with organisations that have direct contact with farmers can increase farmers’ willingness to participate.

Abstract: Diets are a significant contributor to malnutrition in all its forms. Moreover, changes in food consumption create opportunities and challenges for agrifood systems. An improved understanding of diets is therefore crucial to design appropriate food, agricultural, and nutrition policies. Urbanization is commonly put forward as a determinant of changing diets. Yet, research on this relationship has been challenged by the lack of a unified definition of what constitutes an “urban” area. In addition, a simple rural-urban dichotomy has resulted in a focus on the “rural-urban divide” that disregards the interconnectedness between various types of population agglomerations and masks differences within rural and urban zones. In this study, we combine household survey data on food consumption with satellite data capturing the urbanisation gradient following the harmonized definition of the Degree or Urbanisation. While there are important differences across countries, several patterns emerge clearly including a shift away from traditional staples, towards more conveniently consumed and prepared foods. While the effects are often strongest cities, we find significant differences in food consumption at much lower levels of urbanization. This confirms the importance of moving beyond a simple rural-urban dichotomy and taking into account the great diversity among both rural and urban environments.

Abstract: Improving water efficiency in the agricultural sector is essential to ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater in a context of increasing water scarcity and human water demand. The water footprint (WF) is an established metric of resource intensity while the drivers steering WF over time remain under-researched. To advance this line of research, this paper assesses the sign and magnitude of macroeconomic, climatic, and agronomic drivers on the agricultural crop WF in 43 countries of the African continent for the period 2002–2016, using econometric panel data techniques and considering potential spatial patterns. The results reveal a significant spatial dependence in the WF across neighbouring countries. Socioeconomic factors are the most important determinant of water productivity, indicating that economic development facilitates a falling water requirement per unit of production. A negative impact of the temperature variation on the WF is also found, while the share of total land dedicated to agriculture tends to increase the crop WF in the continent. These results support designing adequate agricultural and water management policies to achieve sustainable and resilient food systems capable of adapting to anticipated population growth, climate change and other future threats to human health, prosperity and environmental sustainability in Africa.

Abstract: In Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, many small-scale cocoa producers cultivate cocoa in unshaded or low-shaded plots, leading to challenges such as reduced biodiversity, soil fertility depletion, and increased soil erosion. To assess the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices in the cocoa sector, we develop a scale that incorporates dimensions of agroforestry, soil conservation, pest and disease management and farm sanitation. Using data from >1700 cocoa producers, we examine farmer participation in cooperatives and three main certification schemes (incl. Fairtrade, Rainforest Alliance and Organic) to understand their roles in promoting sustainable practices. We apply a multinomial endogenous switching regression model to control for potential selection bias and estimate the impact of participating in certification schemes, farmer cooperatives or both. In Côte d'Ivoire, econometric results show that joint participation in both a certification scheme and a farmer cooperative is associated with a significantly higher sustainability score. In Ghana, certification scheme membership shows the highest effect.