Food and nutrition security

Abstract: We assess whether consumers' attitudes towards sustainability are reflected in their food choices. Using an online survey, we elicit from 20,000 consumers in ten European countries the main motives when purchasing food, front-of-pack elements that signal differences in sustainability and purchase decisions. At the aggregated level, our results show that self-declared purchase motives translate into consumer choices, albeit in a divergent manner for the health and environmental components of sustainability. The findings can help policymakers and businesses to learn about the gap between attitudes and purchase behaviour and help them develop appropriate policies and strategies to promote sustainable food purchases.

Abstract: Globally, food systems are at the center of an ecological, social, and health crisis. In the Global South, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the reorganization of food systems is crucial to achieving economic development while addressing the various crises. Raising agricultural productivity is important, within a broader development strategy, if it does not imply the destitution of millions of peasants. Agroecology, with its focus on labor-driven intensification, represents an opportunity to transform food systems and achieve sustainability. National policies play a significant role in promoting or hindering agroecological transitions (AETs). In this article we analyze the contents of agricultural policies in Senegal, to determine to what extent the official texts promote AETs. Senegal, a Western African country in the Sahel region, faces important challenges in terms of providing sufficient food for its inhabitants, within a context of worsening climate and persistent demographic growth. Agroecology could provide an opportunity to promote nation-focused agricultural development while preserving peasants. We draw on the categories of critical political economy to clarify the meaning of AETs, in terms of changes in the prevailing mode of production. Subsequently, we deploy social multi-criteria evaluation to analyze the most important agricultural policies since 2014 and assess to what extent the official policy documents are in line with AETs. The results indicate that the policies are still anchored to a narrative of agricultural modernization and are not particularly transformative. Nevertheless, we also note some improvements, particularly with respect to the gender issue, and to a lesser extent with respect to the management of soil fertility and pest control. We note how the emergence of social movements supporting AETs in Senegal may help to promote public policies that are more transformative. The results contribute to the wider debate on the role of public policies in supporting AETs.

Abstract: Support for young farmers is an important objective in the EU’s agricultural policy framework, aiming to promote generational renewal as a means of enhancing the competitiveness and sustainability of the EU’s agricultural sector. This paper focuses on the economic prospects of young farmers by estimating the microeconomic impacts of rural development programme (RDP) support on the economic performance of young farmers in Poland and Germany between 2007 and 2012. Using the synthetic control method and Farm Accountancy Data Network panel data, we find that the support had mixed effects. In Poland, RDP-supported young farmers underperformed relative to their unsupported counterparts, probably due to the entry of less-performing farmers into the sector, high environmental compliance costs and/or insufficiently tailored policy design. Conversely, old farmers benefited more, probably due to their superior entrepreneurial skills and lower commitment to adopting environmental practices. In Germany, RDP support improved the performance of young farmers, suggesting that it probably addressed some market imperfections. These findings underscore the limitations of a one-size-fits-all approach to supporting young farmers and the need for region-specific policies. Policymakers should mitigate unintended consequences, such as incentivising less-performing entrants, and better tailor interventions to the needs of young farmers. While our findings are specific to Poland and Germany, they contribute to broader policy discussions on the effectiveness of agricultural support for young farmers and highlight the need for further research in different contexts.

Abstract: It has been more than four years since the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) was officially launched on January 1st, 2021. The launch of one of the largest free trade zones in the world, covering a market of over 1.3 billion people in 54 countries, was accompanied by great hope that it represents a transformative milestone in Africa's economic integration journey increasing intra-African trade by 53%. After close to five years, it is time to take stock of what the AfCFTA has achieved so far and what challenges its implementation currently faces.

Abstract: The global context has shifted dramatically since publication of the first EAT–Lancet Commission in 2019, with increased geopolitical instability, soaring food prices, and the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and creating new challenges. However, food systems remain squarely centred at the nexus of food security, human health, environmental sustainability, social justice, and the resilience of nations. Actions on food systems strongly impact the lives and wellbeing of all and are necessary to progress towards goals highlighted in the Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Agreement, and the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Although current food systems have largely kept pace with population growth, ensuring sufficient caloric intake for many, they are the single most influential driver of planetary boundary transgression. More than half of the world's population struggles to access healthy diets, leading to devastating consequences for public health, social equity, and the environment. Although hunger has declined in some regions, recent increases linked to expanding conflicts and emergent climate change impacts have reversed this positive trend. Obesity rates continue to rise globally, and the pressure exerted by food systems on planetary boundaries shows no signs of abating. In this moment of increasing instability, food systems still offer an unprecedented opportunity to build the resilience of environmental, health, economic, and social systems, and are uniquely placed to enhance human wellbeing while also contributing to Earth-system stability. This updated analysis builds upon the 2019 EAT–Lancet Commission, expanding its scope and strengthening its evidence base. The first Commission defined food group ranges for a healthy diet and identified the food systems' share of planetary boundaries. In this Commission, we add an analysis of the social foundations for a just food system, and incorporate new data and perspectives on distributive, representational, and recognitional justice, providing a global overview on equity in food systems. Substantial improvements in modelling capacity and data analysis allow for the use of a multimodel ensemble to project potential outcomes of a transition to healthy and sustainable food systems.

Abstract: The application of stress tests, widely used in finance and engineering, to food supply chains and food security remains underexplored. As global crises, climate change and geopolitical disruptions increasingly threaten food systems, stress testing helps assess resilience, identify vulnerabilities and enhance preparedness. This report reviews 25 studies that have applied stress testing or analysed the impact of different disruption scenarios related to food supply chains and food security. It also outlines a potential methodological framework for future food security stress testing. Two main methodological approaches emerge: quantitative models, which provide more precise and measurable insights but involve trade-offs between model complexity and the scale, scope and detail of the food supply chain and food security dimensions they can cover; and qualitative, expert-based approaches, which offer broader, more holistic perspectives of food systems and food security but typically lack quantification. The report also discusses data issues, interdependencies, vulnerabilities, and the strengths and limitations of different stress tests. Given the constraints of quantitative models, a qualitative, expert-based approach, supported by quantitative data, could address more comprehensively the main components of food security. This could involve two expert groups – a technical expert group for analysis and a stakeholder expert group for sectoral insights – working iteratively to integrate expert judgement with empirical evidence to ensure more effective stress testing and policy formulation.

Abstract: Inefficient port infrastructures is one of the challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly as regards the West African region’s economic progress. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, the paper examines how improving port infrastructure in Senegal can increase the potential of seaborne trade, and accelerate economic and social development in the country and the wider region. Despite Senegal's strategic location along the Trans-Saharan trade route in West Africa, infrastructural limitations pose challenges to port capacity. Our findings suggest that improving port infrastructure can increase port productivity, leading to a reduction in costs of imported food products and domestic inputs. As a result, the country's competitiveness in international markets would be enhanced and could stimulate the production of cash crops, industrial food, and chemical products. This would lead to increased food supply and improved purchasing power, supporting the country's food security. Results show that increased efficiencies in maritime exports and imports lead to an overall increase in economic activity, resulting in significant GDP growth, improved welfare, and a reduction in poverty incidence. This growth can be attributed to higher exports and greater availability of imported intermediate inputs at lower prices, making exports more competitive in the global market as export prices decrease.

Abstract: Governments are increasingly considering fiscal instruments to improve dietary health. This paper quantifies the medium-term impacts on European food markets of a differentiated VAT policy that promotes healthy food consumption while discouraging intake of less nutritious products. Scenarios involve reduced VAT on grains, pulses, and poultry, and increased rates on beef, pork, sugar, and highfat dairy. Our results show a significant decline in domestic consumption of targeted foods. However, part of this reduction is exported to other markets – a phenomenon described as “health leakage,” raising questions about the broader effectiveness of such fiscal interventions.

Abstract: Our understanding of how urbanization interacts with food consumption has been hindered by the lack of a unified definition of what constitutes an “urban” area. The use of a binary designation also fails to capture the complexity and diversity of settlement types and results in a focus on the “rural-urban divide”. This study combines nationally representative survey data on household food consumption from eight West African countries with geospatial data capturing the urbanization gradient following the global definition of the Degree or Urbanization. This allows us to analyse consumption of different food groups, diet quality, and macronutrient intakes throughout the rural-urban continuum. We find robust evidence of an increasing rural-urban gradient in total food consumption, as well as a gradual shift away from traditional staple foods, towards increased consumption of foods that require less or no preparation. Residing in more urbanized areas is associated with greater diet diversity and increased consumption of vegetables and animal-source foods. Yet, rising intakes of unhealthy foods and fats in particular along the rural-urban continuum contribute to a deterioration of diet quality. While the estimated effects are strongest in cities, these diet transitions also take place in peri-urban areas and rural areas. This confirms the importance of moving beyond a simple rural-urban dichotomy in research and policy related to food consumption. The demonstrated importance of foods eaten away from home across the entire rural-urban continuum further underscores the need for more research to better understand this sector and explore how it can contribute to both employment and food security.

Abstract: The EU aims to reach 25% of the total agricultural area under organic farming by 2030. Interlinking a farm-level and agro-economic market model, we assess impacts of achieving the target either at Member State or aggregated EU level. Results show that flexible budget allocation across Member States would be more cost-efficient and less detrimental to EU production. Conversely, targeting at Member State level proves more effective in generating greater aggregated and more evenly distributed environmental benefits across EU regions. The results indicate the importance of leveraging tailored approaches to optimize organic farming outcomes across the EU.