Food and nutrition security

Abstract: The policy and public debate on the EU protein sector requires a comprehensive approach that includes EU plant protein production and supply, while simultaneously addressing the broader challenges and opportunities of protein demand in the food and feed sectors. Taking a food systems perspective, this report assesses synergies and trade-offs between four hypothetical scenarios. These scenarios are considered both individually and in combination, and describe possible futures for EU protein supply and demand: (i) providing specific support for protein crop production; (ii) changing livestock feed practices; (iii) restructuring the livestock herd; and (iv) transitioning towards more plant-based diets. While these scenarios are exploratory and do not prejudge policy decisions, the analysis demonstrates that joint changes on both supply and demand are required to enhance the sustainability and resilience of the EU agro-food system. The modelling results indicate that jointly addressing protein supply and demand can yield substantial environmental benefits and reduce the EU's reliance on imported feed protein. An integrated strategy is also essential to support farmers and the broader food system, realising opportunities and mitigating potential adverse impacts associated with the transition to a more sustainable protein supply and demand.

Abstract: This report analyses the farm-level data collection practices of selected public and private sustainability-related certification schemes, with the aim of providing insights into synergies and gaps for the upcoming Farm Sustainability Data Network, which will collect data on environmental and social issues. The analysis is based on online surveys, semi-semi-structured interviews and desk research carried out between June and October 2023. Out of 188 common agricultural policy (CAP) interventions associated with certification schemes within the CAP strategic plans of the Member States, 25 relevant certification schemes were pre-selected for consideration in this report. A total of 10 respondents (i.e. certification agencies and, in some cases, responsible public authorities) participated, covering 16 certification schemes, resulting in response rates of 48 % for respondents and 64 % for certification schemes. Key findings relate to the monitoring practices of operators by certification agencies, data collection methods, data sources, data management practices, data exchange and costs incurred. Respondents rated the data collection process as somewhat costly for both certification agencies and farmers. The main challenges and burdens of the data collection process identified by the respondents are also outlined. The analysis indicates that, while data on environmental and social sustainability are available, considerable efforts are required to collect quantitative data and ensure that they are consistent, digitalised and accessible. The voluntary nature of participation in certification schemes limits the representativeness of the data collected and introduces selection bias. Furthermore, increasing farmers’ understanding of the purpose and benefits of data collection is crucial for motivating farmers. Providing incentives and collaborating with organisations that have direct contact with farmers can increase farmers’ willingness to participate.

Abstract: Diets are a significant contributor to malnutrition in all its forms. Moreover, changes in food consumption create opportunities and challenges for agrifood systems. An improved understanding of diets is therefore crucial to design appropriate food, agricultural, and nutrition policies. Urbanization is commonly put forward as a determinant of changing diets. Yet, research on this relationship has been challenged by the lack of a unified definition of what constitutes an “urban” area. In addition, a simple rural-urban dichotomy has resulted in a focus on the “rural-urban divide” that disregards the interconnectedness between various types of population agglomerations and masks differences within rural and urban zones. In this study, we combine household survey data on food consumption with satellite data capturing the urbanisation gradient following the harmonized definition of the Degree or Urbanisation. While there are important differences across countries, several patterns emerge clearly including a shift away from traditional staples, towards more conveniently consumed and prepared foods. While the effects are often strongest cities, we find significant differences in food consumption at much lower levels of urbanization. This confirms the importance of moving beyond a simple rural-urban dichotomy and taking into account the great diversity among both rural and urban environments.

Abstract: Improving water efficiency in the agricultural sector is essential to ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater in a context of increasing water scarcity and human water demand. The water footprint (WF) is an established metric of resource intensity while the drivers steering WF over time remain under-researched. To advance this line of research, this paper assesses the sign and magnitude of macroeconomic, climatic, and agronomic drivers on the agricultural crop WF in 43 countries of the African continent for the period 2002–2016, using econometric panel data techniques and considering potential spatial patterns. The results reveal a significant spatial dependence in the WF across neighbouring countries. Socioeconomic factors are the most important determinant of water productivity, indicating that economic development facilitates a falling water requirement per unit of production. A negative impact of the temperature variation on the WF is also found, while the share of total land dedicated to agriculture tends to increase the crop WF in the continent. These results support designing adequate agricultural and water management policies to achieve sustainable and resilient food systems capable of adapting to anticipated population growth, climate change and other future threats to human health, prosperity and environmental sustainability in Africa.

Abstract: In Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, many small-scale cocoa producers cultivate cocoa in unshaded or low-shaded plots, leading to challenges such as reduced biodiversity, soil fertility depletion, and increased soil erosion. To assess the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices in the cocoa sector, we develop a scale that incorporates dimensions of agroforestry, soil conservation, pest and disease management and farm sanitation. Using data from >1700 cocoa producers, we examine farmer participation in cooperatives and three main certification schemes (incl. Fairtrade, Rainforest Alliance and Organic) to understand their roles in promoting sustainable practices. We apply a multinomial endogenous switching regression model to control for potential selection bias and estimate the impact of participating in certification schemes, farmer cooperatives or both. In Côte d'Ivoire, econometric results show that joint participation in both a certification scheme and a farmer cooperative is associated with a significantly higher sustainability score. In Ghana, certification scheme membership shows the highest effect.

Abstract: The European Union (EU) farm-to-fork strategy aims to empower consumers to make sustainable food choices, among others, through harmonizing voluntary green claims and labels and potentially introducing a common sustainable claims and labels framework for food products. The literature on the current use of sustainability claims and labels (SCLs) in the EU market is scarce. This paper analyzes the trend developments of SCLs in product launches by food companies across different product groups and countries. The analyses are based on Mintel Global New Product Database on newly introduced products with SCLs, covering 24 food product categories and 19 European countries over the 2005–2021 period. The results show that, on aggregate, across all covered countries and products, the share of product launches with SCLs increased by 2.83% annually from 2005 to 2021. This trend varies greatly among countries, product categories and SCL types. Further, the results show that products covering environmental only SCLs make the highest contribution to the overall sustainability trend (68.2%), followed by products with a combination of both environmental and social SCLs (27.5%), whereas only social SCLs have a minor representation (4.2%). [EconLit Citations: Q18, Q01].

Abstract: In this research, we assess the international trade implications of Ukraine's pursuit of self-determination through the lens of the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement and the contemporaneous war with Russia in the years preceding the 2022 Russian Invasion. To do so, we construct a dataset with annual, bilateral export and import flows for Ukraine and a set of comparator countries at the 6-digit level of the Harmonised Tariff Schedule (HS) for years 2000–2019. Using this data, we nest a difference-in-difference design within a series of econometric gravity models to estimate the effects on the sectoral and geographic composition of Ukrainian trade. Our results indicate a major re-direction of exports towards the EU and away from Russia. Trade outcomes are one of many considerations that led to Ukraine's pursuit of EU integration.

Abstract: Most Sub-Saharan countries implement input subsidy programs (ISPs) in an attempt to increase fertilizer use, crop yields and farmers’ income and to improve household food security. Senegal is no exception and has had an ISP in place for the last 15 years. This article assesses how access to subsidized fertilizer under the ISP is associated with changes in fertilizer and manure use and gross margin. Using household-level data from two agroecological zones, we employ an endogenous switching regression framework to control for the potential endogeneity of access to subsidized fertilizer. We find that access to subsidized fertilizer is associated with an increase in the total use of fertilizer of +39 % but also with a reduction in the use of commercial fertilizer of 18 %. Access to subsidized fertilizer is also associated with a reduction in the likelihood of using manure of 5 % and an increase in farmers’ total gross margin of 11 %. Results are heterogeneous across agroecological zones, with a strong crowding-out of commercial fertilizer where widely available to farmers. In this case, revising the design of the ISP could lead to improved efficiency.

Abstract: Soil loss by water erosion represents a key threat to land degradation worldwide. This study employs an integrated quantitative modelling approach to estimate its long-term global sustainability impacts. The global biophysical model estimates a mean increase of soil erosion rates of between 30 and 66% over the period 2015–2070 under alternative climate-economic scenarios, assuming different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. In a subsequent step, projected soil erosion rates are converted into land productivity losses and inputted into an economic global simulation model to identify those regional hotspots where the greatest market tensions are expected to occur. The headline result is that of a global economic contraction of up to 625 billion US$ by the year 2070. Moreover, soil erosion represents an acute challenge to food security in vulnerable regions (Africa and some tropical regions), where for certain crops (particularly oilseeds) the threat of shortages is potentially significant. Under the worst-case scenario, global primary agricultural production losses could amount to 352 million tonnes by 2070. Exploring different long-term socioeconomic-environmental pathways confirms the merits of sustainable management practises in coping with market and environmental stresses arising from soil erosion that limits the global increase of land used for food consumption to 115,000 km2 above the long run baseline. Finally, free (and fair) trade is essential to allow less affected regions to expand (marginally) their production, thereby cushioning the market tensions that are expected to occur in more acutely affected areas of the world.

Abstract: Relying on the EU FADN dataset for the period 2004-2020, the reports quantitatively estimates the impact of Geographical Indications (GIs) on the economic, environmental and social performances of GI vineyard farms. The empirical analyses employed the combined matching and difference-in-differences estimation technique, which allows several important sources of bias to be addressed, such as self-selection bias, time-invariant and time-variant systematic differences across farms and functional form misspecification. The estimated results suggest that GIs improve economic performance of vineyard farms. GIs also have some positive impact on social dimension by stimulating higher farm wages, while have statistically insignificant impact on farm employment. In contrast, GIs are found to have rather small impact on environmental performance of farms potentially leading to some reduction of energy use, while having no impact on plant protection use of vineyard farms.