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Studies based on agro-economic modelling with emphasis on the simulation and analysis of the impacts of climate change mitigation and adaptation on the agricultural sector.

Many of the studies undertaken contribute to the the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project.

Data and dashboards

Methane’s contribution to agricultural emissions and climate change

Transiency of methane reduces burden of agricultural emission mitigation policies while increasing effectiveness of low-meat diets
Published: 13/12/2021 | Updated: 13/12/2021

AgMIP - Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target

Dataset produced in a study (2018) based on a multiple model assessment on the effects of agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions and their role to play in achieving a 1.5°C (above pre-industrial) climate stabilization target.
Published: 17/12/2018

AgCLIM50 - Phase 1

Study (2017) consisting in a global integrated assessment of the range of potential economic impacts of climate change and stringent mitigation measures in the agricultural sector.
Published: 22/06/2017 | Updated: 14/11/2018

AgMIP - Food insecurity and global climate change mitigation policy

Dataset produced in a study (2018) based on a multiple model assessment on the combined effects of climate change and climate mitigation efforts on agricultural commodity prices, dietary energy availability, and the population at risk of hunger.
Published: 30/07/2018

AgMIP - Phase 1

Data produced by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison-Improvement Project (AgMIP), a international collaboration to improve the state of agricultural simulation and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector at global and regional scales.
Published: 31/05/2017

Publications

  • Estimating employment and value added in the bioeconomy of EU regions

    Year: 2022

    Authors: Lasarte-López, JM; Ronzon, T; van Leeuwen, M; Rossi Cervi, W; M'barek, R

    Journal: Publications Office of the European Union

    Abstract: The analysis and monitoring of the bioeconomy at the regional level is of interest for policy design and evaluation, and it aligns with the territorial approach called for by the Bioeconomy Strategy (2018) of the European Union (EU). Although some initiatives provided estimates of the size and/or regional distribution of the bioeconomy in some countries, there are no homogeneous data allowing the analysis of the regional dimension of the EU’s bioeconomy. This report describes a methodology to estimate employment and value added of the bioeconomy sectors at the NUTS2 level in the EU. It consists of a systematic combination of Eurostat regional statistics with national bio-based shares from the public JRC-Bioeconomics database for allocating employment and value added in the bioeconomy sectors amongst regions. National bio-based shares are calculated following Ronzon et al. (2020)’s approach. When missing from Eurostat data sources, regional series are estimated by applying various criteria to regionalise national statistics. Finally, some missing data estimation algorithms are applied to complete the dataset. Preliminary results evidence that this approach manages to fill in the majority of missing series and data in the initial datasets. We extract some key figures and trends for the regional bioeconomies in the EU. We discuss our results through the comparison with available official statistics, other previous estimates and expert feedback, and propose potential improvements.

  • Land-based climate change mitigation measures can affect agricultural markets and food security

    Year: 2022

    Authors: Fujimori, S; Wu, W; Doelman, J; Frank, S; Hristov, J; Kyle, P; Sands, R; van Zeist, W-J; Havlík, P; Pérez-Domínguez, I; Sahoo, A; Stehfest, E; Tabeau, A; Valin, H; van Meijl, H; Hasegawa, T; Takahashi, K

    Journal: Nature food

    Abstract: Earlier studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation strategies on food security, particularly due to food price increases—but without distinguishing these strategies’ individual effects under different conditions. Using six global agroeconomic models, we show the extent to which three factors—non-CO2 emissions reduction, bioenergy production and afforestation—may change food security and agricultural market conditions under 2 °C climate-stabilization scenarios. Results show that afforestation (often simulated in the models by imposing carbon prices on land carbon stocks) could have a large impact on food security relative to non-CO2 emissions policies (generally implemented as emissions taxes). Respectively, these measures put an additional 41.9 million and 26.7 million people at risk of hunger in 2050 compared with the current trend scenario baseline. This highlights the need for better coordination in emissions reduction and agricultural market management policies as well as better representation of land use and associated greenhouse gas emissions in modelling.

  • How much is policy driving the adoption of cover crops? Evidence from four EU regions

    Year: 2022

    Authors: Kathage, J; Smit, B; Adrados, JL; Janssens, B; Haagsma, W

    Journal: Land Use Policy

    Abstract: EU agriculture is facing increasing expectations and pressure from society and policymakers to support environmental protection and climate change mitigation. Catch and cover crops (CCC) are an underused farming practice that can potentially contribute towards these goals. Previous research is sparse and has yielded few relevant insights into CCC adoption behaviour by farmers. In this study we analyse a dataset from farm surveys in four EU regions to better understand the role of policy and non-policy factors in CCC adoption. Our data suggests that adoption rates vary widely between regions, while farm adoption intensities are low. We find that policy is by far the strongest determinant of adoption rates and adoption intensities. CCC adoption patterns have been shaped mainly by the Nitrates Directive and the Common Agricultural Policy's greening requirements. Agronomic motives are a third but much weaker impetus for adoption. Environmental and climate change considerations do not play a significant role in farmers' adoption decisions. Most non-adopters would likely become adopters if stronger policy obligations or additional subsidies were implemented. Non-adopters‘ responsiveness to subsidies and willingness to accept is highly varied but only weakly predictable from easily observed farm characteristics.

  • Short- and long-term warming effects of methane may affect the cost-effectiveness of mitigation policies and benefits of low-meat diets

    Year: 2021

    Authors: Pérez-Domínguez, I; Del Prado, A; Mittenzwei, K; Hristov, J; Frank, S; Tabeau, A; Witzke, P; Havlík, P; van Meijl, H; Lynch, J; Stehfest, E; Pardo, G; Barreiro-Hurle, J; Koopman, JFL; Sanz-Sánchez, MJ

    Journal: Nature food

    Abstract: Methane’s short atmospheric life has important implications for the design of global climate change mitigation policies in agriculture. Three different agricultural economic models are used to explore how short- and long-term warming effects of methane can affect the cost-effectiveness of mitigation policies and dietary transitions. Results show that the choice of a particular metric for methane’s warming potential is key to determine optimal mitigation options, with metrics based on shorter-term impacts leading to greater overall emission reduction. Also, the promotion of low-meat diets is more effective at reducing greenhouse gas emissions compared to carbon pricing when mitigation policies are based on metrics that reflect methane’s long-term behaviour. A combination of stringent mitigation measures and dietary changes could achieve substantial emission reduction levels, helping reverse the contribution of agriculture to global warming.

  • Potential impacts of concurrent and recurrent climate extremes on the global food system by 2030

    Year: 2021

    Authors: Chatzopoulos, T; Pérez-Domínguez, I; Toreti, A; Adenauer, M; Zampieri, M

    Journal: Environmental Research Letters

    Abstract: The risk of food-supply instability is expected to increase along with the frequency and intensity of extreme agro-climatic events in many regions. Assessing the sensitivity of the global agricultural system to evolving extremes requires the probability of occurrence of such events to be estimated and their links with potential food supply and demand culminations to be established. From this perspective, in this article we implement a novel approach that can be used as a tool to inform decision-makers about the resilience of agricultural markets to climate extremes. By incorporating simulated climate-stress events into a partial-equilibrium model of interconnected agricultural commodity markets, we examine the complex manifestations of grain supply, demand and prices attributable to hazardous extremes. Market outcomes are further synthesized into coherently defined vulnerability and risk indicators. The proposed framework currently covers compound heat and water anomalies at the country level, potentially concurrent and recurrent, that impact annual crop yields and market balances in a recursive-dynamic manner until 2030. Our findings indicate that extreme-climate anomalies significantly distort expected market equilibria in the medium term. Moreover, extreme global prices may result either from climate anomalies in single key countries or from simultaneous events in many regions. Last but not least, trade and storage come forth as important alleviative mechanisms of the market uncertainty provoked by recurrent extremes.

  • How much multilateralism do we need? Effectiveness of unilateral agricultural mitigation efforts in the global context

    Year: 2021

    Authors: Frank, S; Havlík, P; Tabeau, A; Witzke, P; Boere, E; Bogonos, M; Depperman, A; Van Dijk, M; Höglund-Isaksson, L; Janssens, C; Kesting, M; van Meijl, H; Pérez-Domínguez, I; Valin, H

    Journal: Environmental Research Letters

    Abstract: Achieving climate neutrality in the European Union (EU) by 2050 will require substantial efforts across all economic sectors, including agriculture. At the same time, an ambitious unilateral EU agricultural mitigation policy is likely to have adverse effects on the sector and may have limited efficiency at global scale due to emission leakage to non-EU regions. To analyse the competitiveness of the EU's agricultural sector and potential non-CO2 emission leakage conditional on mitigation efforts outside the EU, we apply three economic agricultural sector models. We find that an ambitious unilateral EU mitigation policy in line with efforts needed to achieve the 1.5 °C target globally strongly affects EU ruminant production and trade balance. However, since EU farmers rank among the most greenhouse gas efficient producers worldwide, if the rest of the world were to start pursuing agricultural mitigation efforts too, economic impacts of an ambitious domestic mitigation policy get buffered and EU livestock producers could even start to benefit from a globally coordinated mitigation policy.

  • Modelling environmental and climatic ambition in the agricultural sector with the CAPRI model

    Year: 2021

    Authors: Barreiro-Hurle, J; Baldoni, E; Bogonos, M; Elleby, C; Himics, M; Hristov, J; Pérez-Domínguez, I; Sahoo, A; Salputra, G; Weiss, F

    Journal: Publications Office of the European Union

    Abstract: Exploring the potential effects of selected farm to fork and biodiversity strategies targets in the framework of the 2030 climate targets and the post 2020 Common Agricultural Policy

  • Greenhouse gas mitigation technologies in agriculture: Regional circumstances and interactions determine cost-effectiveness

    Year: 2021

    Authors: Fellmann, T; Pérez-Domínguez, I; Witzke, P; Weiss, F; Hristov, J; Barreiro-Hurle, J; Leip, A; Himics, M

    Journal: Journal of Cleaner Production

    Abstract: Agriculture, forestry and other land use are important components of a global strategy to limit climate change. Using the example of EU agriculture, this paper examines the potential contribution of technological (i.e. technical and management-based) greenhouse gas mitigation options to climate targets. The quantitative framework presented allows to analyze disparities between marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) derived from two different commonly used approaches, and between aggregated and regional MACCs. Results highlight the importance of assessing mitigation of agricultural emissions from a multi-dimensional perspective, considering regional heterogeneity of biophysical and economic circumstances and comprising both carbon-dioxide (CO2) and non-CO2 emissions. Regarding the ranking of technologies in terms of mitigation potential and costs, the results underline the need to consider technologies in a combined manner, avoiding the simple aggregation of mitigation potentials by individual measures without taking their interactions into account. Focusing only on standalone MACCs can lead to an overestimation of the mitigation potential. Conversely, measures classified as relatively high cost in standalone and aggregated MACCs should not be discarded, as they can still be cost-effective in some regions. The analysis shows that there is no ‘one size fits all’ rule that could be followed for identifying technologies that should be implemented in all regions. From a policy perspective the results imply that farmers should be granted some flexibility to adopt a set of cost-effective mitigation options that best fits their circumstances.

  • Setting climate action as the priority for the Common Agricultural Policy: a simulation experiment.

    Year: 2019

    Authors: Himics, M; Fellmann, T; Barreiro-Hurle, J

    Journal: Journal of Agricultural Economics

    Abstract: We quantitatively assess the impacts of re‐allocating budgetary resources within Pillar 1 of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) from direct income support to a direct greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction subsidy for EU farmers. The analysis is motivated by the discussion on the future CAP, with calls for both an increased ambition on climate action from the agricultural sector and for a more incentive‐based delivery system of direct payments under strict budgetary restrictions. By conducting a simulation experiment with an agricultural partial equilibrium model (CAPRI), we are able to factor in farmers’ supply and technology‐adjusting responses to the policy change and to estimate the potential uptake of the GHG‐reduction subsidy in EU regions. We find that a budget‐neutral re‐allocation of financial resources towards subsidised emission savings can reduce EU agricultural non‐CO2 emissions by 21% by 2030, compared to a business‐as‐usual baseline. Two‐thirds of the emission savings are due to changes in production levels and composition, implying that a significant part of the achieved GHG reduction is offset globally by emission leakage. At the aggregated level, the emission‐saving subsidy and increased producer prices compensate farmers for the foregone direct income support, but differences in regional impacts indicate accelerated structural change and heterogeneous income effects in the farm population. We conclude that the assumed regional budget‐neutrality condition introduces inefficiencies in the incentive system, and the full potential of the EU farming sector for GHG emissions reduction is not reached, leaving ample room for the design of more efficient agricultural policies for climate action.

  • Climate extremes and agricultural commodity markets: A global economic analysis of regionally simulated events

    Year: 2019

    Authors: Chatzopoulos, T; Pérez-Domínguez, I; Zampieri, M; Toreti, A

    Journal: Weather and Climate Extremes

    Abstract: Agroclimatic extremes can be seen as typical supply shifters that, on a par with economic and structural drivers, distort supply, demand, trade, and induce price variability. Economic simulation models typically operate under the assumption of ‘normal’ growing conditions, contain no explicit parameterization of climatic anomalies on the supply side, and confound multifarious sources of yield fluctuation in harvest-failure scenarios. In this article we follow a novel approach by augmenting a partial equilibrium model of global agriculture with a recently developed indicator of yield stress. We perform a multi-scenario analysis where the most extreme temperature and soil-moisture anomalies of the last decades, be it negative or positive, recur in the near future. Our results indicate that: (i) regional climate extremes may have significant economic impacts both at the domestic and international levels; (ii) the magnitude of the transmission effect depends on the attributes of the simulated extremes, the positioning of the impacted country in the trade arena, and the market status quo at the time of the shock; and (iii) crop prices generally display asymmetry to the direction of the agrometeorological shock with stronger responsiveness to negative anomalies (i.e., those leading to yield reduction) than to positive ones.

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Models

AIM

The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is a large-scale computer simulation model developed by the National Institute for Environmental Studies in collaboration with Kyoto University, Mizuho Information & Research Institute and several research institutes in the Asia-Pacific region.

The AIM assesses policy options for stabilizing the global climate, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, with the objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and avoiding the impacts of climate change.

AIM

CAPRI


CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact Modelling System) is an economic model developed by European Commission research funds. Operational since almost a decade, it supports decision making related to the Common Agricultural Policy based on sound scientific quantitative analysis. 

GLOBIOM

IIASA's Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) is used to analyze the competition for land use between agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy, which are the main land-based production sectors.

GLOBIOM

IMAGE

IMAGE is an Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment.

The IMAGE modelling framework has been developed by the IMAGE team under the authority of PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

IMAGE

IMPACT

IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) is a multi-market economic model linked to water and crop models.

IMPACT

MAGNET

MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool) is a global general equilibrium model that has been widely used to simulate the impacts of agricultural, trade, land and bioenergy policies on the global economy with a particular focus on the impacts on land use, agricultural prices, nutrition and household food security.

MAgPIE

The Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE) is a modular open source framework for modeling global land-systems, which is coupled to the grid-based dynamic vegetation model LPJmL, with a spatial resolution of 0.5°x0.5°. It takes regional economic conditions such as demand for agricultural commodities, technological development and production costs as well as spatially explicit data on potential crop yields, land and water constraints (from LPJmL) into account.

MAgPIE

MAgPIE is available as open source.

WRF-Chem

WRF-Chem is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry. The model simulates the emission, transport, mixing, and chemical transformation of trace gases and aerosols simultaneously with the meteorology. The model is used for investigation of regional-scale air quality, field program analysis, and cloud-scale interactions between clouds and chemistry.

Partners

BC3

The Basque Centre for Climate Change (B3) is a research centre on the causes and consequences of climate change. With a multidisciplinary team, it produces knowledge to support decision making towards sustainable development at the international level.

EuroCARE

The European Centre for Agricultural, Regional and Environmental Policy Research (EuroCARE GmbH Bonn) is a consultancy specialized in quantitative and qualitative analysis of agricultural and environmental policies. EuroCARE's mission is to deliver scientifically sound and independent analysis, bridging the gap between academic research and policy design.

EuroCARE

IFPRI

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries. One of IFPRI’s strategic research areas concerns fostering climate-resilient and sustainable food supply.

IFPRI

IIASA

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an independent, international research institute with National Member Organizations in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe.

IIASA

Ikerbasque

The Ikerbasque is foundation created by the basque government to reinforce the basque scientific system through the attraction, recovery and retention of researchers from all around the world.

NIBIO

The Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO) is to contribute to food security and safety, sustainable resource management, innovation and value creation through research and knowledge production within food, forestry and other biobased industries.

PBL

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency is the national institute for strategic policy analysis in the fields of the environment, nature and spatial planning.

PBL

PIK

Advancing the scientific frontier on inter-disciplinary climate impact research for global sustainability and contributing knowledge and solutions for a safe and just climate future – this is the twofold mission of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), a member of the Leibniz Association and a leader in its field.

PIK

Ruralis

Ruralis is an organisation that carries out mostly applied social research. The institute contributes knowledge and information to the political and administrative processes in Norway. However, Ruralis also has a special national mission as the Norwegian node in an international university network of rural sociology.

WUR- Netherland

The mission of Wageningen University & Research (WUR) is ‘To explore the potential of nature to improve the quality of life’.

The domain of WUR consists of three related core areas:

  • Food, feed & biobased production
  • Natural resources & living environment
  • Society & well-being

Projects

AgMIP

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector.

FOODSECURE

The FOODSECURE Navigator is a website jointly produced by the research team of the FOODSECURE project. The Navigator forms the interface between the scientific output of the FOODSECURE project, and policy makers and other stakeholders in the EU and developing countries. Its main aim is to support decision makers in the formulation of evidence-based food and nutrition policies by presenting key insights on the drivers of global food and nutrition security. In addition, it is a tool to stimulate learning, discussion and communication on food and nutrition security issues.

Data platforms & databases

Climate change database - EUROSTAT

Statistics from various domains in an easily accessible and structured way, to help you find data to better understand, analyse and monitor climate change.

EUROSTAT climate change

Environment database - EUROSTAT

Eurostat provides a range of statistics and accounts about the state of the environment and the drivers, pressures and impacts of our societies on the environment. in this section, you find information about:

  • Air emissions;
  • Biodiversity;
  • Energy accounts;
  • Environmental protection;
  • Environmental sector;
  • Hazardous substances;
  • Material flows and resource productivity;
  • Taxes;
  • Water.
EUROSTAT

Knowledge platforms

Competence Centre on Modelling

We promote a responsible, coherent and transparent use of modelling to support the evidence base for EU policies.

CCOM

Policy pages

European Green Deal

Climate change and environmental degradation are an existential threat to Europe and the world. To overcome these challenges, Europe needs a new growth strategy that will transform the Union into a modern, resource-efficient and competitive economy.

From Farm to Fork

A healthier and more sustainable EU food system is a cornerstone of the European Green Deal

SDG 13: Climate action

Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.

SDG13

UN SDGs

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015, provides a shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and into the future.

SDGs

Research programmes pages

Horizon 2020 - R&I programme 2014-2020

Horizon 2020 EU Research and Innovation programme available over 7 years (2014 to 2020) with nearly €80 billion of funding.

Horizon 2020

Horizon Europe - R&I programme 2021-2027

Horizon Europe is the EU's key funding programme for research and innovation with a budget of €95.5 billion. It tackles climate change, helps to achieve the UN's Sustainable Development Goals and boosts the EU's competitiveness and growth.

Horizon Europe
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