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Pan-African Network for economic Analysis of Policies

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What is the Pan African Network for Economic Analysis of Policies (PANAP)?

The Pan-African Network for economic Analysis of Policies brings together academic, research and institutional partners that develop research on agro-economics and policy issues.

It was established in 2019 under the aegis of the African Union (AU) - European Union (EU) partnership.

The network is co-hosted by the European Commission - Joint Research Centre (JRC), the African Union Commission - Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy, and Sustainable Environment (ARBE), and the Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA).

PANAP

Our mission

PANAP aims to strengthen the liaison between researchers/scientists and policymakers in Africa, and to stimulate their cooperation on selected topics linked to policy priorities that reinforce the stability and enhance the development of African agriculture and food sectors. In particular, the network is conducting research on economic analysis of policies focusing on Africa’s Food Systems and that supports its sustainable transition.

networking

PANAP Objectives

  1. Enhance food and nutrition security, as in the Malabo Declaration - ending hunger in Africa by 2025, and SDG1 – Ending Poverty & SDG2 - Zero Hunger.
  2. Foster scientific communities providing independent, evidence-based scientific support, data/information, and economic analysis of sustainable agrifood systems and related policies.
  3. Support continental, regional and national policymakers in Africa in designing, assessing ex-ante and evaluating ex-post the impacts of agricultural policies.
  4. Serve as a platform for knowledge sharing of micro and macro data, models/economic tools, modelling skills, promote the dissemination of simulation results and create a common knowledge base and practices on the topic of economic analysis of policy.

About this website

Currently hosted within the pages of the Data/Modelling platform of resource economics of the European Commission, this website works as complete and up-to-dated reference of the network's activities. Find here the involved partners and collaborators, the network events, the documents, the news, the scientific publications and policy briefs, the economic modelling tools, and a repository of all the open datasets.

networking

To remain informed on the network activities and events, please subscribe to the PANAP newsletter by filling in the form!

Our navigator allows to explore hundreds of PANAP publications and resources by country, and year or model.

Data and dashboards

Country dashboards

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A one-stop-shop infographics combining data from scattered sources on food/nutrition security and macroeconomics and agro-economics indicators for countries where food security and sustainable agriculture are focal sectors for EU intervention.
Published: 13/06/2019 | Updated: 06/05/2024

Jobs calculator

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What happens to employment if exports change? Try this interactive tool to simulate the effects of demand changes on jobs. Tool based on the Social Accounting Matrices. Simulation available for 30+ countries, including all EU, the UK, and some Africans.
Published: 09/04/2019 | Updated: 24/10/2023

PANAP Newslettters

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Subscription to the PANAP newsletters
Published: 28/09/2022

Sustainable Cocoa Event 2022

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Sustainable Cocoa Side-Event @ 2022 FAO Science & Innovation forum
Published: 19/09/2022

PANAP Navigator

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Tableaux de bord pour naviguer parmi les contenues du réseau panafricain pour l'analyse économique des politiques - Control board to navigate through the contents of the Pan-African Network for economic Analysis of Policies
Published: 06/09/2020

The impacts of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area on the Tanzanian economy

The report contains a country-level analysis regarding the African Continental Free Trade Area impacts on the Tanzanian economy using the JRC-DEMETRA model
Published: 21/03/2024

SAM - Tanzania - 2015

Social Accounting Matrix for Tanzania for 2015, estimated by JRC (2023)
Published: 31/01/2024

AfCFTA tariff offer analysis

Three tariff line categorisations based on HS revision 2017 6-digit codes, as used in the analysis of the AfCFTA tariff offers in the study.
Published: 22/01/2024

Plan Sénégal Emergent 2019-2023

Arguments scientifiques à l'appui d'options politiques en faveur du secteur agricole pour la deuxième phase du Plan Sénégal Emergent (PSE) et de son Plan d'Actions Prioritaires (PAP) en 2019-2023.
Published: 26/02/2019 | Updated: 15/01/2024

FPCA-II. Food Price Crowdsourcing Africa-expansion

FPCA - From mobile app-based crowdsourcing to crowd-trusted food prices in Nigeria: statistical pre-processing and post-sampling.
Published: 05/01/2023

The impacts of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area on the Kenyan economy

The report contains a country-level analysis regarding the African Continental Free Trade Area impacts on the Kenyan economy. It presents a detailed assessment of the free trade area effects on economics sectors, households and government revenue.
Published: 15/02/2022

Potential effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on African agri-food sectors and food security

This report complements previous continental economy-wide assessments of the impacts of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by providing a more comprehensive description of the trade agreement’s effects on food systems and food security.
Published: 24/11/2021

SAM - Ghana - 2015

Social Accounting Matrix for Ghana for 2015, estimated by JRC (2021)
Published: 31/05/2021

SAM - Ethiopia - 2015/16

Social Accounting Matrix for Ethiopia for 2015/16, estimated by JRC (2020)
Published: 08/01/2020

RJOC - Ethiopia

Study that provides quantitative evidences supporting policy options for the Rural Job Opportunity Creation Strategy (RJOCS) in Ethiopia
Published: 26/11/2019

Food Price Crowdsourcing Africa

“Food Price Crowdsourcing Africa” (FPCA) is a research project for understanding food price changes along the food chain while strengthening agricultural and market information systems through mobile phone technology and citizens' participation.
Published: 12/03/2019 | Updated: 23/07/2019

ASGTS - Kenya

Study (JRC & FAO-MAFAP, 2018) to explore ex-ante socioeconomic impacts of alternative agricultural policies, driving to development options recommended to support the final decision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries (MoALF) of Kenya
Published: 26/06/2018

Publications

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    Government fertilizer subsidies, input use, and income: The case of Senegal

    Year: 2024

    Authors: Ricome, A; Barreiro-Hurle, J; Sadibou Fall, C

    Journal: Food Policy

    Abstract: Most Sub-Saharan countries implement input subsidy programs (ISPs) in an attempt to increase fertilizer use, crop yields and farmers’ income and to improve household food security. Senegal is no exception and has had an ISP in place for the last 15 years. This article assesses how access to subsidized fertilizer under the ISP is associated with changes in fertilizer and manure use and gross margin. Using household-level data from two agroecological zones, we employ an endogenous switching regression framework to control for the potential endogeneity of access to subsidized fertilizer. We find that access to subsidized fertilizer is associated with an increase in the total use of fertilizer of +39 % but also with a reduction in the use of commercial fertilizer of 18 %. Access to subsidized fertilizer is also associated with a reduction in the likelihood of using manure of 5 % and an increase in farmers’ total gross margin of 11 %. Results are heterogeneous across agroecological zones, with a strong crowding-out of commercial fertilizer where widely available to farmers. In this case, revising the design of the ISP could lead to improved efficiency.

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    The impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area on the Tanzanian economy

    Year: 2024

    Authors: Maskaeva, A; Mgeni, C; Msafiri, M; Kinyondo, G; Msemo, EM; Nechifor, V; El Meligi, A; Ferreira, V; Boysen, O; Simola, A

    Journal: Publications Office of the European Union

    Abstract: This study utilises the DEMETRA (Dynamic Equilibrium Model for Economic Development, Resources and Agriculture) computable general equilibrium model to conduct an economy-wide assessment of the impacts of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on mainland Tanzania. The model provides a comprehensive description of the trade agreements effects on the economy as a whole, and on the agriculture and industrial sectors in particular. The study also employs a global, multiregional model to determine the trade creation and diversion effects of four liberalisation schedules defined by various policy objectives. The findings show that the AfCFTA will have a positive effect on both economic growth and welfare, mainly because the reduction in trade barriers, especially non-tariff barriers, will result in increased consumption and output (by reducing distortions) and consequently an improvement in efficiency. The Tanzanian national income is expected to improve as exports increase. Exporting sectors that are expected to gain include the agriculture, food processing, textiles, chemicals, paper and glass sectors. The AfCFTA will lead to increased output in industries that employ a large number of women, leading to a rise in their relative wages. In the agriculture sector, cash crops production will expand to a greater extent than that of food crops, and male labour employment in this sector will expand. Primary commodities will continue to be the most important exports. The study shows that trade in Tanzania is dominated by trade in raw materials, with trade in manufactured goods correspondingly weak, which is clearly reflected in current patterns in intra- and extra-African trade. The findings thus highlight the need for the Tanzanian government to promote industrialisation.

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    Agro-economic determinants of violations of protected areas in Western Africa

    Year: 2024

    Authors: Rogna, M

    Journal: Land Use Policy

    Abstract: Despite protected areas are a useful instrument for preserving locations with a high natural value, violations are frequent, endangering their primary scope. Encroachment, the use of land inside protected areas for agricultural purposes, is a common violation. The present paper investigates the determinants of encroachment in eight Western African countries, with a broad coverage rarely seen in previous research on the topic. The focus is placed on the agro–economic determinants, in the form of average characteristics of rural households living in the proximity of protected areas. The analysis is performed through a Tobit model, with OLS, Probit and Poisson regressions used as robustness checks. Protected areas in locations with a strong agricultural vocation or with a high percentage of protected land are more likely to be subject to violations. Furthermore, economic deprivation and land profitability are other two mild drivers of encroachment together with mechanization. Other indicators of modern practices such as irrigation and use of inorganic fertilizers, instead, do not increase the probability of violations to protected areas. Furthermore, husbandry is a significant determinant of encroachment, but only when involving cattle, while specializing in certain types of crops, e.g. cereals, vegetables or cash crops, does not affect the probability of violations.

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    From mobile crowdsourcing to crowd-trusted food price in Nigeria: statistical pre-processing and post-sampling

    Year: 2023

    Authors: Arbia, G; Solano-Hermosilla, G; Nardelli, V; Micale, F; Genovese, G; Amerise, IL; Adewopo, J

    Journal: nature

    Abstract: Timely and reliable monitoring of food market prices at high spatial and temporal resolution is essential to understanding market and food security developments and supporting timely policy and decision-making. Mostly, decisions rely on price expectations, which are updated with new information releases. Therefore, increasing the availability and timeliness of price information has become a national and international priority. We present two new datasets in which mobile app-based crowdsourced daily price observations, voluntarily submitted by self-selected participants, are validated in real-time within spatio-temporal markets (pre-processed data). Then, they are reweighted weekly using their geo-location to resemble a formal sample design and allow for more reliable statistical inference (post-sampled data). Using real-time data collected in Nigeria, we assess the accuracy and propose that our reweighted estimates are more accurate with respect to the unweighted version. Results have important implications for governments, food chain actors, researchers and other organisations.

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    Earn a living? What the Côte d’Ivoire–Ghana cocoa living income differential might deliver on its promise

    Year: 2022

    Authors: Boysen, O; Ferrari, E; Nechifor, V; Tillie, P

    Journal: Food Policy

    Abstract: Despite the high value of the global chocolate market and the high profitability of the few multinational companies dominating it, the farmers growing cocoa beans remain poor. To change this, the two biggest cocoa producers, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, have jointly introduced the cocoa Living Income Differential (LID) policy. Charging higher prices for beans, the policy might help mitigate both poverty and the serious child labour and deforestation issues associated with cocoa farming, for which poverty is regarded as a root cause. Nevertheless, the design of the policy and the current lack of complementary measures raise doubts about the success and longevity of the policy and concerns about the implications for farmers in other countries. Accounting for the repercussions with international cocoa markets, this study quantifies the magnitude of the policy’s effects in the LID countries and elsewhere under several alternative configurations of policies and market reactions with the support of model simulations and finds increases in farmer income ranging from zero to sizeable. Discussing the policy’s potential impacts in the past and present context of the cocoa industry, it identifies a number of issues threatening its sustainability. Moreover, it underlines the strong dependence of the policy’s success on chocolate manufacturers’ support unless complemented by supply management measures. Such measures could limit the aggravation of, or even improve, the income situation for farmers elsewhere and the child labour and deforestation issues.

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    Economic integration and food security – The case of the AfCFTA

    Year: 2022

    Authors: Simola, A; Boysen, O; Ferrari, E; Nechifor, V; Boulanger, P

    Journal: Global Food Security

    Abstract: The study assesses potential effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on agri-food sectors and food security in Africa. It employs the global Computable General Equilibrium model MAGNET in an ex ante analysis. The analysis has high regional and sectoral detail, representing the wide variety of African economies and trade policy strategies. The AfCFTA lifts 1.0 million people from risk of hunger while increasing national incomes. The rise in food prices offsets the increase in household income in a few regions. Food production increases in total, but several regions reduce production while increasing imports. Non-tariff measure reductions have higher impact than tariff cuts. A group of countries could experience adverse food security effects due to the AfCFTA.

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    Balancing national economic policy outcomes for sustainable development

    Year: 2022

    Authors: Basheer, M; Nechifor, V; Calzadilla, A; Ringler, C; Hulme, D; Harou, JJ

    Journal: Nature Communications

    Abstract: The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim at jointly improving economic, social, and environmental outcomes for human prosperity and planetary health. However, designing national economic policies that support advancement across multiple Sustainable Development Goals is hindered by the complexities of multi-sector economies and often conflicting policies. To address this, we introduce a national-scale design framework that can enable policymakers to sift through complex, non-linear, multi-sector policy spaces to identify efficient policy portfolios that balance economic, social, and environmental goals. The framework combines economy-wide sustainability simulation and artificial intelligence-driven multiobjective, multi-SDG policy search and machine learning. The framework can support multi-sector, multi-actor policy deliberation to screen efficient policy portfolios. We demonstrate the utility of the framework for a case study of Egypt by identifying policy portfolios that achieve efficient mixes of poverty and inequality reduction, economic growth, and climate change mitigation. The results show that integrated policy strategies can help achieve sustainable development while balancing adverse economic, social, and political impacts of reforms.

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    The role of the agricultural sector in Ghanaian development: a multiregional SAM‑based analysis

    Year: 2022

    Authors: Ferreira, V; Almazán-Gómez, M.A.; Nechifor, V; Ferrari, E

    Journal: Journal of Economic Structures

    Abstract: Ghana shows remarkable differences in employment and welfare between the southern and northern regions. The promotion of policy focus on the development of the northern regions requires the elaboration of specific databases describing the regional economies. Hence, this work outlines the construction of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Ghana for the year 2015 with a high disaggregation of sectors, household income groups and education levels across 10 administrative regions. Linear multisectoral models have been applied to this SAM to estimate socio-economic impacts of potential final demand policies down to a regional level in the Ghanaian economy. Further on, the structural path analysis is used to investigate the role played by different agriculture commodities in transmitting income to different types of households. The results allow for an identification of the most suitable sectors to be promoted due to their ability to generate the highest increases in output, employment and value added in the rest of the economy, as well as those with a significant impact on household income generation. As a result, the primary sector will play a key role in the economic and employment growth of the country. Notably, sorghum and millet, pulses, tobacco, cotton and fibres can be considered favourable crops for development in the Northern region.

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    Financing national scale energy projects in developing countries - An economy-wide evaluation of Ghana’s Bui Dam

    Year: 2022

    Authors: Nechifor, V; Basheer, M; Calzadilla, A; Obuobie, E; Harou, JJ

    Journal: Energy Economics

    Abstract: Large energy infrastructure can imply special financing arrangements between governments in developing economies and investors or lenders. These arrangements can lead to economy-wide and sector-specific impacts which need to be considered in the project economic evaluation. By considering the case of the Bui Dam in Ghana, we use a macroeconomic approach to determine how the economic performance of critical energy infrastructure manifests during the construction, financing and operation phases. The analysis uses an integrated modelling framework that combines a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of Ghana with a water balance model of the Lower Volta River Basin. The results highlight the importance of including indirect and induced effects, in addition to the direct effects from project operation, as they influence the scale and temporal evolution of the economic impacts. The collateral from the infrastructure loan agreement consisting in cocoa exports to China nearly doubles the project's positive GDP impact and has a significant multiplier effect over urban and rural household income compared to a standard commercial loan. We finish with a discussion of how the proposed investment-oriented modelling framework can contribute to ex-ante strategic assessments of proposed energy infrastructure in developing countries.

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    Trade liberalisation in Kenya: A modelling linkage for wheat and maize

    Year: 2022

    Authors: Binfield, J; Boulanger, P; Davids, T; Dudu, H; Ferrari, E; Mainar-Causapé, AJ

    Journal: African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics

    Abstract: Kenya has become a driving force of trade integration at the regional and continental level, albeit that this process is still incomplete. Kenya was the first nation, along with Ghana, to ratify the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement in May 2018, as it was already engaged with its main trading partners. Trade policy can generate mixed effects across the economy and within the agricultural sector, reflecting differences between markets and commodities. In this paper we argue that a mix of modelling approaches is preferable in order to capture the complexities of these changes. A dynamic-recursive computable general equilibrium model provides broad sectoral and macro-economic effects, which are then incorporated into a partial equilibrium framework for a detailed analysis at the sector level. We demonstrate this using the maize and wheat markets in Kenya as examples. Combining the output of each modelling approach allows the analysis to explicitly include certain characteristics of single markets, particularly regional trade relationships and differences in pricing structure that would be missed by using a single approach in isolation. It shows that further intra-African trade liberalisation will affect wheat markets more than maize in Kenya but, given the low initial tariff levels, the ultimate effects will remain fairly small.

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Collaborators

CNRA - Côte d'Ivoire

The National Agricultural Research Center (CNRA) of Côte d'Ivoire, provides a public research service with private-type management. It places at the heart of its actions, the sustainable increase in production and productivity in the agricultural and agro-industrial fields.

CNRA - Côte d'Ivoire logo

COMESA

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa

COMESA logo

IITA

The International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) is a non-profit institution
that generates agricultural innovations to meet Africa’s most pressing challenges of hunger,
malnutrition, poverty, and natural resource degradation. Working with various partners across
sub-Saharan Africa, we improve livelihoods, enhance food and nutrition security,
increase employment, and preserve natural resource integrity.ly.

IITA logo

INS - Niger

The "Insitute National de la Statistique" of Niger coordinates the activities of the National Statistical System (SSN), produces statistical information following international standards, and ensures the conservation and, where appropiate, the dissemination of data colleted by all services of the SSN. It also promotes the development of methodologies and applied research in the fields of the collection, processing and dissemination of statistical data.

INS - Niger logo

ISSER - Ghana

The Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) currently serves as the research wing under the College of Humanities, University of Ghana and engages in a number of policy relevant research whose findings are intended to help policy makers on the best policy decisions to make for national development.

MAG/EL - Niger

Ministère de l'Agriculture et de l'Élevage de la République du Niger - Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock of the Republic of Niger

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MAG/EL - Niger logo

MINADER - Cameroun

République du Cameroun Ministre de l'Agriculture et du Développement Rural - Ministry of agriculture and rural development of Cameroun.

MINADER - Côte d’Ivoire

République de Côte d’Ivoire Ministre de l'Agriculture et du Développement Rural - Ministry of agriculture and rural development of the Ivory Coast.

MINADER - Côte d’Ivoire logo

NILDS

The National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies (NILDS) is an organ of the Nigerian National Assembly established by an Act of Parliament. NILDS supports the sustenance of dynamic and effective Legislature in Nigeria (at Federal, State and Local level), and the ECOWAS sub-region.

Models

DEMETRA

Developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, DEMETRA, is is a single-country, recursive dynamic CGE economic model, used to analyse policy scenarios on agricultural economics, food security, fiscal policy and water nexus issues in developing countries.

DEMETRA official page

FSSIM-Dev

The Farming System Simulator for Developing Countries (FSSIM-Dev) is one of the decision-making tools developed by the JRC to provide independent evidence-based policy analysis in the areas of food and nutrition security and sustainable agriculture, specifically in sub-Saharan Africa.

FSSIM-Dev official page

MAGNET

MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool) is a global general equilibrium model that has been widely used to simulate the impacts of agricultural, trade, land and bioenergy policies on the global economy with a particular focus on the impacts on land use, agricultural prices, nutrition and household food security.

Partners

ANSD - Senegal

The Agence Nationale de Statistique et de la Démographie (ANSD) of Senegal is an administrative structure endowed with legal personality and management autonomy and placed under the authority of the Minister in charge of Statistics.

AU

The African Union (AU) is a continental body consisting of the 55 member states that make up the countries of the African Continent. It was officially launched in 2002 as a successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU, 1963-1999)

African Union logo

 

The AU is part of the coordinating body of the PANAP network

BOAD

The West African Development Bank (BOAD) is the common development finance institution of the member countries of the West African Monetary Union (WAMU). It was established by an Agreement signed on 14 November 1973, and became operational in 1976. Member countries include Benin, Burkina, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.

CAPEG - Niger

Cellule d’Analyse des Politiques publiques et d’Evaluation de l’action Gouvernementale is an administrative structure created under the Prime Minister, Head of Government. Its main mission is to contribute to strengthening the effectiveness of public action in terms of anticipation and decision-making through the production of knowledge on public policies and the analysis of the performance of government action.

CIRES - Côte d'Ivoire

The mission of the Centre Ivoirien de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (CIRES) consists essentially in:

  • undertaking research activities concerning the economic and social problems of the Ivory Coast and the countries of the Sub-Region.
  • establishing ongoing relationships with as many public or private economic bodies as possible, and publish research on economic and social disciplines.

EIAR - Ethiopia

The Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) aspires to see improved livelihood of all Ethiopians engaged in agriculture, agro-pastoralism, and pastoralism through market-competitive agricultural technologies.

FARA

The Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA) is the apex continental organization responsible for coordinating and advocating for agricultural research for development (AR4D). FARA serves as the technical arm of the Africa Union Commission on matters concerning agriculture science, technology and innovation.

FARA logo

FARA is part of the coordinating body of the PANAP network

INRAN - Niger

The Niger National Institute of Agricultural Research (INRAN) is Niger’s principal agricultural research agency. Administered by the Ministry of Agriculture, INRAN conducts research on crops, livestock, natural resources, socioeconomics, and agricultural engineering.

INRAN - Niger logo

INS - Côte d'Ivoire

Insitute National de la Statistique de la Côte d'Ivoire - National Statistical Institute of the Ivory Coast.

INS - Côte d'Ivoire logo

ISRA - Senegal

The Senegalese Institute of Agricultural Research (ISRA) aims for the design and implementation of research programs on crop, forest, animal and fish production and rural economy. It also looks for the creation of scientific knowledge, the generation of technological innovations and the development of decision-support tools for the improvement of the agricultural sector

Its "Bureau d'analyses macro-économiques" (BAME) is a specialized department s in economics and social sciences research, aiming at better understanding the transformations of the Senegalese rural world.

ISRA - Senegal logo

KIPPRA - Kenya

KIPPRA is the leading institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis in Kenya

KIPPRA - Kenya logo

PSI - Ethiopia

Policy Studies Institute (PSI) is a policy think tank established in November 2018 by the Ethiopian government, engaged in:

  • Economic, social and governance research and policy studies;
  • Bridging research and policymaking;
  • Capacity building and consultancy; and
  • Knowledge dissemination and exchange.

PSI - Ethiopia

SUA - Tanzania

Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) is a public University based in Morogoro Tanzania. It is best known for offering courses and programmes widely in a field of Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Forestry, Animal Science, Wildlife Management, Tourism Management, Environmental Science, Food Science, Natural Resources, Nutrition, Rural Development, since its establishment.

Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development

The Institute conducts Research and Analysis on policy in the domain of Agriculture, Rural development, Natural resources and Environment. It aims at addressing micro and macroeconomic policy issues bearing on farming, transportation, processing, marketing, and trade of agricultural products and inputs; sustainability of agricultural systems and natural resources as well as the environment; and commercialization, income growth and food security.

The Western Cape Department of Agriculture

The Western Cape Department of Agriculture provides a wide range of development, research and support services to the agricultural community in the Western Cape. The agricultural sector stimulates economic growth in the province and plays a major role in creating sustainable job opportunities.

Policy briefs

Effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area on Food Security

The African countries are deepening their economic integration by launching the world’s largest free trade area, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). This Policy Insight presents scientific evidence on the impacts of the AfCFTA on agri-food industries and food security in Africa. The AfCFTA deepens African economic integration by boosting intra-African trade throughout the continent. It potentially generates vibrant growth and transformation at scale.

By 2035, the AfCFTA could reduce undernourishment in Africa by 1 million people.

Implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the Kenyan economy

The Kenyan economy was significantly affected by the global supply chain disruptions stemming from the Russian invasion. The macroeconomic impacts were largely driven by global fertilizer and fossil fuel price increases. Rural households were nevertheless affected by raising food prices, notably those of vegetable oils. Kenyan Government intervention through fossil fuel subsidies contributed to an ease of the cost of living crisis by reducing prices, but came at a considerable fiscal cost. Fertilizer subsidies proved to enhance food security by boosting agricultural output with positive fiscal secondary effects.

Working Papers

  • 2023-01

    Title: Economywide impacts of expansion of maritime trade efficiencies in Senegal - A recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium approach

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC134634

    Year: 2023

    Authors: Sahoo, A; Nechifor, V; Ferreira, V; Ferrari, E; Damit, SD

    Abstract: Senegal's strategic location along the Trans-Saharan trade route play a crucial role in the country's trade industry. About half of the country’s demand for food crops is imported. However, the port capacity is increasingly facing pressures due to its infrastructural constraints leading to hidden iceberg type of costs. Infrastructural investment can potentially raise the port capacity, hence increasing the efficiencies of trade transactions by doing away with the existing iceberg costs. The study applies a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model to evaluate potential outcomes of increased efficiencies in maritime trade on Senegal’s economic performances and wellbeing of Senegal. The findings indicate that increasing the efficiencies of maritime trade would result in lower costs for imported food products and inputs to the domestic activities, enhancing country’s competitiveness in the export markets that would boost domestic output, particularly of cash crops, industrial food and chemical products. Increased availability of food supply with higher purchasing power of the households would support the country’s food security. Improved maritime efficiencies would improve country’s economic growth and overall welfare with urban households benefiting the most. There would be significant reduction in poverty incidence at the national level, with larger impacts on rural areas. However, impacts on extreme poor are substantially lower than poverty incidence.

  • 2023-02

    Title: The Effects of Rising Prices on Maize Production in Western African Countries

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC134410

    Year: 2023

    Authors: Rogna, M

    Abstract: The intensification of the Russo--Ukrainian war started in February 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine has generated a dramatic increase in the price of several goods. In particular, energy, gas and oil have been the most interested by this spike in prices, followed by several agricultural commodities. Fertilizers, whose production is energy intensive and/or directly dependent from oil derivatives, have also experienced a sharp increase in prices. This has risen concerns for food insecure countries, particularly in Africa, since, besides a lower possibility to purchase food commodities on the international market, they will likely decrease their own production due to a lower utilization of fertilizers. Quantifying this potential decrease in agricultural production is important in order to fully assess their vulnerability in terms of food security. The present paper tries to accomplish this task by forecasting the change in maize production in 2022 and 2023 compared to 2021 in seven Western African countries. We find an overall decline in maize production of 10% circa in both years with a strong heterogeneity among countries. Trivial users of fertilizers, such as Niger, experience a very modest decline in production (less than 2%) whereas others, such as Benin and Togo, have a double digit decline: approximately 13% the former and 32% the latter.

  • 2023-03

    Title: Agro-economic determinants of violations of Protected Areas in Western Africa

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC134631

    Year: 2023

    Authors: Rogna, M

    Abstract: Protected areas are a widely diffused instrument for preserving the environment by restricting human activities in locations with a high natural value. However, such restrictions may create discontent on nearby inhabitants or on economic actors that are prevented from exploiting the resources present in protected areas. This may easily lead to violations. Encroachment, the use of land inside protected areas for agricultural purposes, is a common violation. The present paper investigates the determinants of encroachment in Western African countries. The focus is placed on the agro-economic determinants. Protected areas in locations with strong agricultural vocation or with high percentage of protected land are more likely to be subject to violations. Furthermore, economic deprivation and land profitability are other two mild drivers of encroachment together with mechanization. Other indicators of modern practices such as irrigation and use of inorganic fertilizers, instead, do not increase the probability of violations to protected areas.

  • 2023-04

    Title: Sustainable practices in cocoa production. The role of certification schemes and farmer cooperatives

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC135044

    Year: 2023

    Authors: Krumbiegel, K; Tillie, P

    Abstract: Many small-scale cocoa producers in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana grow cocoa on unshaded or low-shaded cocoa plots. This has dire consequences for farm biodiversity, resulting in lower species richness and depleted soils. To measure the extent of sustainable agricultural practices’ use in the cocoa sector, we develop a scale that incorporates dimensions of agroforestry, soil conservation, pest and disease management and farm sanitation. We use a representative data set of more than 1700 cocoa producers in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana to assess farmer participation in different organizational structures and market channels and their roles in promoting sustainable practices. We apply a multinomial endogenous switching regression model to control for potential selection bias and derive the average treatment effect of the treated (ATT) and the untreated (ATU) for three participation options: 1) certification scheme only, 2) farmer cooperative only and 3) both. In Côte d’Ivoire, econometric results show that joint participation in both a certification scheme and a farmer cooperative leads to a significantly higher sustainability score than alternative options. In comparison, certification scheme membership shows the highest effect in Ghana. Different findings may be explained by differences in the organization of the cocoa value chain across the two countries. Governmental extension services in Ghana provide support to cocoa farmers, which otherwise farmer cooperatives would potentially offer.

  • 2023-05

    Title: Integrating the three sustainability dimensions: A Social Accounting Matrix approach for Cameroon.

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC134015

    Year: 2023

    Authors: El Meligi, A; Ferreira, V; Ferrari, E

    Abstract: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is a comprehensive and economy-wide database that records data on all transactions taking place in an economy over a specific period, typically one year. The SAM serves two primary objectives. Firstly, it presents the economic structure and interrelationships among economic agents in the region under analysis. Secondly, it provides a database for analysing the economy’s performance and simulating the effects of policy interventions through multisectoral linear models and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. This paper presents the 2016 SAM for Cameroon, offering a suitable database for implementing and evaluating the country's developmental, social, economic and environmental policies. The paper outlines how to pass from a standard structure of the SAM to a detailed scheme by explaining all the accounts included, and covering key aspects of its construction and estimation. This SAM presents a high level of disaggregation by encompassing labour and household characteristics, along with satellite accounts for employment and emissions. The SAM is used as a database to perform a descriptive analysis of the Cameroonian economy and to obtain results that focus on the three sustainability dimensions: social, economic and environmental.

  • 2023-06

    Title: Agricultural Commodities' Price Transmission From International to Local Markets in Developing Countries

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC135279

    Year: 2023

    Authors: Emediegwu, L; Rogna, M

    Abstract: The transmission of commodities prices from the international to local markets is an interesting and deeply investigated topic. A fast and strong link between the two levels of the market is seen by economists as a sign of local market efficiency, allowing actors to respond fast to signals coming from the international market. However, the empirical evidence on the topic is very mixed, ranging from a very weak linkage between the two market prices to a high-speed and almost complete transmission. The present paper aims to advance the knowledge on the topic by focusing on the price transmission of four main cereals – maize, rice, sorghum, and wheat – in 23 developing and fragile economies. Employing a recent World Bank dataset with prices for several local markets in select countries, we estimate panel vector autoregressions (PVAR) to analyze the pass-through effects of international price shocks on local food prices. We find evidence for a relatively strong price transmission elasticity for all commodities except sorghum. Furthermore, the observed transmission of shocks is almost immediate. We present the policy implications for these findings.

  • 2023-07

    Title: Implications of Russia’s war against Ukraine for African economies: A CGE analysis for Ethiopia

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC135512

    Year: 2023

    Authors: Woldie Yalew, A; Nechifor, V; Ferrari, E

    Abstract: The ongoing Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is disrupting the global supply chains of essential commodities resulting in a cascading effects on the global economy. This study examines the implications of Russia’s military aggression for Ethiopian. It assesses the consequences of world market price increases for wheat, fertilizer, and petroleum on Ethiopia’s macro economy, production, and households’ consumption. The study employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to the 2015/2016 social accounting matrix (SAM) of Ethiopia, updated to 2022 using the recursive dynamic features of the model. The impacts of the world price increases are presented as percentage changes to a counterfactual Ethiopian economy in 2022, without accounting for actual and anticipated repercussions from the war. The study finds that GDP, labour wage rates, and households’ consumption decline. The impacts of fertilizer and petroleum price changes are notable and unevenly distributed. Crop growing activities substitute animal manure for inorganic fertilizers. The effect on urban households’ consumption more severe than on rural households. Rising petroleum prices increase the demand for ethanol providing motives to expand sugar manufacturing. Increasing inorganic fertilizer prices tighten the competition for the use of animal manure between cropping activities and households. Promotion of biogas digesters among rural households could encourage the optimal use of animal manure.

  • 2024-01

    Title: The AfCFTA Tariff Offers: Current State and First Insights

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC135509

    Year: 2024

    Authors: Boysen, O

    Abstract: The majority of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement signatories have submitted tariff concession offers, as published on the AfCFTA Secretariat’s website. More than a year after the AfCFTA came into effect, it is time to take stock of these submissions and conduct a first assessment of the data with respect to members’ stances towards fostering intra-African trade through openness on the one hand and maintaining protection against competing imports and revenues from import tariffs on the other. Combining the offers with corresponding trade and tariff data, we find that there are both substantial data gaps and inconsistencies with the AfCFTA’s trade liberalisation modalities and the trade classification standard. Constructing two tariff schedules, one which repairs the offers for compliance with the modalities and another that maximises the import tariff revenue retained as a benchmark, the study gauges each region’s offer regarding the commitment to liberalisation versus protection. The analysis confirms that the modalities require regions to liberalise strongly but most opt to liberalise even more and earlier than necessary. Stances towards freer trade differ markedly between regions. Some tend towards retaining all possible tariff revenues or corresponding negotiation space while others directly and strongly commit to liberalisation. The constructed AfCFTA liberalisation categorisations are provided for download to update AfCFTA impact analyses with the latest information available on a likely AfCFTA tariff liberalisation agreement.

  • 2024-02

    Title: Empowering the modelling for Policy with the 2015 Social Accounting Matrix for Tanzania

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC135413

    Year: 2024

    Authors: El Meligi, A; Ferreira, V; Nechifor, V; Boysen, O; Ferrari, E

    Abstract: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is a comprehensive and economy-wide database that records data on all transactions taking place in an economy over a specific period, typically one year. The SAM serves two primary objectives. Firstly, it presents the economic structure and interrelationships among economic agents in the region under analyses. Secondly, it provides a database for analysing the economy’s performance and simulating the effects of policy interventions through multisectoral linear models and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. This report presents the 2015 SAM for Tanzania, offering a suitable database for implementing and evaluating the country's social and economic policies. The report outlines how to pass from a standard structure of the SAM to a detailed scheme by explaining all the accounts included, and covering key aspects of its construction and estimation. Considering the characteristics of the Tanzanian economy, this SAM shows a special structure to reflect the Home Production for Home Consumption (HPHC) issue and a high disaggregation of the agricultural sector. Furthermore, this SAM presents a high level of disaggregation by encompassing labour and household characteristics, considering regions, gender rural and urban areas, as well as quintiles. The SAM is used as a database to perform a descriptive analysis of the Tanzanian economy.

  • 2024-03

    Title: The contribution of agricultural Inputs in reducing undernourishment

    URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC136856

    Year: 2024

    Authors: Rogna, M

    Abstract: With almost eight hundred millions people suffering from hunger in 2022, the world population projected to increase of 2 additional billions units by 2050 and the need to strongly curb greenhouse gas emissions, food production will remain a central issue in the next decades. In particular, the need to balance between environmental sustainability and output growth will require to make crucial choices. Agro-ecology, for example, strongly advocates the need to reduce inputs use in agriculture, often criticizing the intensification policy implemented during the so called “Green Revolution”. However, every decision has benefits and costs. While the effect of agricultural inputs on yields has been largely studied, their contribution to nutritional outcomes has been partly overlooked. In order to take well-informed decisions about optimal inputs intensity, this is an aspect to be taken into consideration. Therefore, the present paper investigates the role of agricultural inputs in reducing undernourishment through fixed effect panel regressions at country level. By covering roughly half of the countries in the world for a 20 years’ time period, it is shown that irrigation and mineral fertilizers positively and significantly contribute to reduce undernourishment. Pesticides and manure are also beneficial, but their contribution is less robust, while land per-capita seems to be inconsequential.

Events

21/02/2024 Abuja, Nigeria Workshop on the impact of the AfCFTA for the Nigerian economy
15/02/2024 Ghana StEPPFoS Project Inception Meeting, 1st General Assembly and 1st Steering Committee
14/02/2024 Ghana Workshop on the potential impact of AfCFTA on agri-food sectors and food security
14/12/2023 Virtual General annual PANAP meeting 2023
07/12/2023 Dakar, Senegal Workshop on the results of an ex-post evaluation of an agricultural input subsidy program in Senegal
27/09/2023 Dodoma, Tanzania Workshop for the “The impact of the AfCFTA on the Tanzanian economy” in Dodoma, Tanzania
18/09/2023 Durban, South Africa PANAP participation at the 7th African Conference of Agricultural Economists & 60th Annual AEASA Conference
30/06/2023 Rome, Italy 5th AU – EU Agriculture Ministerial Conference - Side event: how science can support policymaking, the PANAP example
06/06/2023 Durban, South Africa The sustainable mutation of the Cacao Supply Chain: challenges and opportunities for Africa
13/03/2023 Seville, Spain Workshop "Economy-wide agricultural modelling with DEMETRA"
14/09/2022 Accra, Ghana General annual PANAP meeting during the "Science and Partnership for Agriculture Conference"
25/11/2021 Virtual 2nd PANAP meeting during the CAADP-PP 2021 event
22/06/2021 Virtual 4th African Union (AU) – European Union (EU) agriculture ministerial conference - Official page
10/12/2020 Virtual Science Forum South Africa (SFSA) - PANAP session
06/11/2019 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia PANAP launch event and first conference - Official page
21/06/2019 Rome, Italy African Union - European Union agriculture ministerial conference

Knowledge platforms

Africa Knowledge Platform

A gateway to data and information on Africa's social, economic, territorial and environmental development, developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.

FARADataInformS

Observartory for Africa Agriculture, powered by the Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA)

FARA logo

Knowledge Centre for Global Food and Nutrition Security

We support the EU global commitment to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition through a dedicated, reinforced science-policy interface and a fostered inter-policy dialogue.

News on the web

News from the web

News gathered from the World Wide Web, with relevance for the PANAP network.

These news are grasped by the "Europe Media Monitor" (EMM), please wait some seconds while the white box is filled-in with the news.

EMM is updated every 10 minutes, 24 hours per day.

EMM
 
To know more on EMM please check this page

Newsletters

PANAP Newsletter Nr. 1, January 2024

PANAP logo for newsletters

Welcome to the inaugural newsletter of JRC contribution to The Pan-African Network for economic Analysis of Policies (PANAP). This initiative is part of the endorsed actions agenda of the 3rd AU-EU Agriculture Ministerial Conference on Agriculture in 2019.

Subscribe to the PANAP newsletters!

PANAP Newsletters application form

 

Fill in the form to receive updates on the PANAP activities! You will be able to withdraw any moment by asking to JRC-PANAP@ec.europa.eu.

Policy pages

AU-EU partnership

The Africa-EU Partnership is the formal channel through which the European Union and the African continent work together. It is based on the Joint Africa-EU Strategy adopted by Heads of State and Government at the second EU-Africa Summit in 2007.

AU   EU

Find below the page dedicated to the PANAP launch event (EN/FR):

english   french

Africa-Europe alliance: a political declaration for a stronger partnership in agriculture, food and farming

On the occasion of the third African Union – European Union agricultural ministerial conference, African Union and the European Union representatives for the first time endorsed a Political Declaration, accompanied by an action agenda, with the overall aim of further strengthening the Africa-EU partnership in food and farming at all levels.

EU   AU

Download the document with the political declaration and action agenda:

AU

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