Agriculture & economics

Abstract: In September 2025, the European Parliament and Council signed the law of the Revision of the EU waste framework directive, which includes also reductions for food loss and waste (FLW). This comes at a time of concern over the EU's strategic autonomy for its agrifood sector. Taking a cradle-to-grave approach, this paper combines official FLW statistics with recent advances in simulation modelling to quantify the impacts of two FLW cuts scenarios on EU food availability, affordability, and stability. Compared with a business-as-usual baseline, average EU household per capita food budget savings and self-sufficiency of up to €192 and 0.82\%, respectively, are observed, accompanied by falling average EU food production of up to 2\%. With the inclusion of FLW behavioural market adjustment costs (taxes), average EU food producer price falls of up to 1\% are lower than reported in previous studies, whilst in a handful of member states, consumer food prices rise marginally. This hitherto unforeseen outcome is a signal for anticipating and ensuring adequately tailored social protection schemes for the most vulnerable.

Abstract: Agriculture, forestry, and other land use contribute about a fifth of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Mitigation efforts have emphasized “decoupling” that sustains production while lowering emissions per unit of output. However, the underlying decoupling mechanisms have not been fully characterized. We rely on a mathematical identity to decompose agricultural GHG emission growth (ΔE) into three parts: output (ΔY), emissions per unit of input (ΔE/X), and output per unit of input (ΔY/X) or total factor productivity (TFP). We then rely on official country-level data to quantify the historical contribution of these components. Over 1961 to 2021, we find that TFP growth—which captures the sector’s ability to produce more output per unit of measured input—has consistently remained one of the main sources of GHG emission reduction within farms. Further decomposition reveals a key role for rising land productivity in reducing emission intensity. Productivity growth is the main force slowing growth of agricultural GHG emissions.

Abstract: Growing attention has been paid to gender balance in EU agriculture due to a persistently lower presence of female farm managers. While several studies have examined factors affecting successor selection in family farms, there is limited evidence on how the process of successor identification differs between male and female successors in the EU. This paper aims to address this gap while highlighting the factors that specifically support or hinder the choice of a female successor. Based on a survey of 559 farmers from Italy and Poland, we employ logistic and multinomial logistic regression to model the likelihood of identifying successors. Firstly, we find a significant difference in the factors affecting the identification of female and male successors, both in the pooled sample and in each country separately. Secondly, female successors are more likely to be identified than male successors in organic farms not belonging to producer organisations, where women are already involved in farm management and rely on the full incumbent's involvement in farming, stronger ties to public institutions, and certain retirement plans. In contrast, patrilineal family structures, such as having a firstborn son, multiple children or family members with health issues, tend to favour male successors. Although start-up support for young farmers may enhance the overall likelihood of successor identification, it does not appear to have a specific effect on the likelihood of selecting female rather than male successors. On this basis, the paper draws some considerations for gender-tailored policies to support gender balance in EU agriculture.

Abstract: Support for young farmers is an important objective in the EU’s agricultural policy framework, aiming to promote generational renewal as a means of enhancing the competitiveness and sustainability of the EU’s agricultural sector. This paper focuses on the economic prospects of young farmers by estimating the microeconomic impacts of rural development programme (RDP) support on the economic performance of young farmers in Poland and Germany between 2007 and 2012. Using the synthetic control method and Farm Accountancy Data Network panel data, we find that the support had mixed effects. In Poland, RDP-supported young farmers underperformed relative to their unsupported counterparts, probably due to the entry of less-performing farmers into the sector, high environmental compliance costs and/or insufficiently tailored policy design. Conversely, old farmers benefited more, probably due to their superior entrepreneurial skills and lower commitment to adopting environmental practices. In Germany, RDP support improved the performance of young farmers, suggesting that it probably addressed some market imperfections. These findings underscore the limitations of a one-size-fits-all approach to supporting young farmers and the need for region-specific policies. Policymakers should mitigate unintended consequences, such as incentivising less-performing entrants, and better tailor interventions to the needs of young farmers. While our findings are specific to Poland and Germany, they contribute to broader policy discussions on the effectiveness of agricultural support for young farmers and highlight the need for further research in different contexts.

Abstract: Food systems play a pivotal role in preserving the balance between environment and human activities. Their sustainability is key for operating within the planetary boundaries. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) published its first food system monitoring dashboard in November 2024, to provide information on progress towards a fair, healthy and environmentally friendly food system. In addition to selecting indicators for monitoring, the related work identified important knowledge gaps on food system sustainability. These gaps were marked with placeholders indicating research or data collection needs. This report describes the first phase of the evolutionary maintenance of the dashboard, providing overall context and methodological steps for turning placeholders into headline or secondary indicators. Importantly, the report also informs on how data in the monitoring system is managed, ensuring balanced and non-repetitive coverage of the environmental, economic and social dimensions, as well as the components of the food supply chain. The first phase of placeholder development yielded 15 new indicators in the dashboard- out of which 9 had been formulated as placeholders in the November 2024 report while 6 were newly proposed and developed indicators. These indicators draw on newly discovered public data, data derived from original research, and data resulting from the combination of public and commercial data sources. Beyond informing on the sustainability of the EU food system, the monitoring framework including the upgraded dashboard and this report, may also contribute to policy making on issues such as competitiveness, social inclusion and environment.

Abstract: The Scenar 2040 study provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential impacts of two hypothetical scenarios related to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the EU agricultural sector and its broader environment. The baseline (reference scenario) is calibrated to the 2023 EU Agricultural Outlook, and the current national CAP Strategic Plans serve as starting point for the shifts in the policy scenarios. In the first scenario support is directed towards CAP measures enhancing productivity and competitiveness, whereas the second scenario shifts support towards more environmental and climate-focused interventions. The study also includes a counterfactual NoCAP scenario, simulating the removal of the entire CAP framework. The study aims to contribute to policy discussions on the future of the CAP by providing quantitative insights into the general implications of alternative CAP trajectories. The scenario results underscore the CAP’s essential role for the EU’s agricultural sector and its broader socio-economic and environmental interlinkages across territories. The results indicate that the removal of the CAP framework would have considerable heterogeneous economic, environmental, and social impacts across the EU. The two alternative CAP scenarios reveal contrasted outcomes aligned with their respective narratives. The results highlight the CAP’s critical role, the complexity involved in balancing competing objectives, and confirm market fundamentals as primary drivers of production, although policy can significantly modulate outcomes.

Abstract: This report presents a two-step approach to rank European Union Quarantine Pests (UQPs) based on their potential economic, social, and environmental impacts. In the first step, a shortlisting methodology was developed and applied to approximately 400 UQPs to select a subset of pests which were subject to a more detailed analysis in the second one. The shortlisted 46 pests were evaluated using an updated and modified version of the Impact Indicator for Priority Pests (I2P2) a composite indicator based on multi-criteria analysis. To calculate I2P2 values expert knowledge elicitations were conducted by EFSA for key parameters and these combined with a diversity of secondary data sources. The I2P2 model combines economic, social, and environmental impact into a single value which is subsequently used to rank pests. We assessed robustness of our recommendation with regards to uncertainty on the biological parameters as well as risk managers’ preference on avoiding impacts in the different domains. In addition we inform on the driving factors behind the composite scores.

Abstract: The global context has shifted dramatically since publication of the first EAT–Lancet Commission in 2019, with increased geopolitical instability, soaring food prices, and the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and creating new challenges. However, food systems remain squarely centred at the nexus of food security, human health, environmental sustainability, social justice, and the resilience of nations. Actions on food systems strongly impact the lives and wellbeing of all and are necessary to progress towards goals highlighted in the Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Agreement, and the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Although current food systems have largely kept pace with population growth, ensuring sufficient caloric intake for many, they are the single most influential driver of planetary boundary transgression. More than half of the world's population struggles to access healthy diets, leading to devastating consequences for public health, social equity, and the environment. Although hunger has declined in some regions, recent increases linked to expanding conflicts and emergent climate change impacts have reversed this positive trend. Obesity rates continue to rise globally, and the pressure exerted by food systems on planetary boundaries shows no signs of abating. In this moment of increasing instability, food systems still offer an unprecedented opportunity to build the resilience of environmental, health, economic, and social systems, and are uniquely placed to enhance human wellbeing while also contributing to Earth-system stability. This updated analysis builds upon the 2019 EAT–Lancet Commission, expanding its scope and strengthening its evidence base. The first Commission defined food group ranges for a healthy diet and identified the food systems' share of planetary boundaries. In this Commission, we add an analysis of the social foundations for a just food system, and incorporate new data and perspectives on distributive, representational, and recognitional justice, providing a global overview on equity in food systems. Substantial improvements in modelling capacity and data analysis allow for the use of a multimodel ensemble to project potential outcomes of a transition to healthy and sustainable food systems.

Abstract: Studies analysing land managers’ stated preferences for participation in environmental policy initiatives have largely overlooked the issue of hypothetical bias (HB). In this study, a discrete choice experiment focusing on farmers’ willingness to accept (WTA) to participate in agri-environmental schemes is used to examine an HB mitigation measure. The ex post HB mitigation measure is based on perceived consequentiality, grounded in the notion that greater survey consequentiality implies greater survey credibility, prompting land managers to provide more realistic responses. The results show that such a measure can help to reduce HB, which can lead to WTA being overestimated by 35%, in line with recent meta-analyses focusing on WTA settings for private goods. The results also indicate that perceived consequentiality exhibits a kind of “knife-edge” effect, like that reported for WTP settings with public goods. Overall, the results support the value of accounting for and enhancing perceived consequentiality. While this study opens up different avenues for further research, it should help future valuations of this kind to provide more accurate estimates, enabling more precise policy-making support for land and resource managers.

Abstract: The digitalisation of the EU agricultural sector is an essential part of the broader EU Digital Agenda and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) aiming to promote competitiveness, sustainability, and resilience in agriculture through digital transformation. This report analyses the current state of digitalisation in EU agriculture, covering the adoption of general IT and software tools and farm-specific technologies, key drivers and barriers, perceived sustainability aspects, and farm-level practices in data collection, management and sharing. The analysis is based on farm survey data from 1 444 respondents in nine EU Member States – Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Lithuania, Hungary and Poland – collected between June and October 2024. The results show that while general IT and software tools are widely used, more expensive technologies specific to crop or livestock production have been less widely adopted. Adoption rates are higher among larger farms, those with better internet connectivity and those with specialised training. Key drivers of adoption include efficiency gains, cost savings, regulatory pressures and improved quality of life, while high costs and limited skills remain notable barriers. Farmers expect digital technologies to have positive economic, environmental and social impacts. Farm-level data collection is still largely manual or based on basic digital tools, which increases the administrative burden on farmers. Farmers appear to take a selective approach to data sharing, mainly due to concerns about privacy, security and data control. Promoting transparent data policies, ensuring farmers benefit from sharing and adopting a targeted policy approach for advanced technologies can help build trust and support wider digital adoption.