The jobs calculator is the interactive tool of the Data portal for agro-economic Modelling (DataM) for simulating the effects of export changes on employment for 30+ countries/aggregates, including all EU Member States.
Find all about this tool on the release page of November 2019.
Brexit
Following the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, we release today a new version of the tool with following changes:
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The new aggregate EU-27 (2020) allows analysing all current EU Members as from 1st February 2020 as a whole
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The United Kingdom is kept as one of the EU third countries(*) included in the tool
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The EU-28 aggregate, referring to the EU Members between 1st July 2013 and 31st January 2020, is kept in the tool in order to allow pre/post Brexit comparisons
Methodological changes
A new SAM (Social Accounting Matrix) plus new "multipliers matrices" have been calculated for the EU-27 (2020) aggregate, modifying the trade (imports and exports) accounts, and the employment vector. Figures did not change for individual countries and for the EU-28 aggregate as compared to the former version of the calculator.
The SAMs we use consider trade in a unique account (Rest of the World - RoW) that includes exports and imports with all countries, disregarding if they are EU Members or not. Therefore, Member States data are not modified
Also figures for the EU-28 aggregate remain the same. The new EU-27 (2020) aggregate has been of course estimated by using the same criteria adopted for EU-28 but considering the UK as a third country, part of the RoW.
Cautions
Some considerations are necessary referring the comparison of the two aggregates:
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The exports of the EU-27 (2020) aggregate now include also the sales made by the current 27 EU Member States to the UK. On the other hand, the sales that UK do towards countries outside the EU are not anymore in. Same happens with the imports.
Therefore, exports of EU-27 (2020) are bigger than those of EU-28, when the exports of EU-27 (2020) toward UK are bigger than the contribution of UK in the EU-28 exports of the same product or service to the rest of the world.
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For some specific accounts (Taxes less subsidies, among others), negative values are allowed, so the non-consideration of the UK could lead to higher values in the EU-27 (2020) aggregate than in the EU-28 one.
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The Employment / Output ratio of each activity can, logically, be in the EU-27 (2020) aggregate greater or smaller than in the EU-28 one. This also influences the results of the job calculator.
(*) For the time being, we also have Ethiopia and Kenya. Senegal is under preparation
