This dashboard has been developed by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) to assess the potential implications of a stronger alignment of production standards applied to imported agricultural products, with a particular focus on pesticide active substances not approved in the European Union.
The analysis is based on CAPRI model simulations for 2040. The dashboard provides insights into the potential impacts on trade, production, prices, consumption, and market balances across countries, commodities, and active substances.
Three scenarios are considered:
1. No Adaptation in Trade – No Scaling
This scenario assumes that exporting countries do not adapt their production practices to comply with EU requirements.
Implementation:
- If a country–active substance–commodity triad is detected by EFSA or identified through pesticide use information, 100% of the corresponding exports to the EU are restricted. See table of country-commodity pairs affected here
- No adaptation measures are undertaken by producers or exporters.
- This represents the maximum potential disruption to trade flows and serves as an upper-bound estimate of possible impacts.
2. Adaptation Based on Profitability Switching – 5% Additional Cost (Raw EFSA Scaling)
This scenario assumes that exporters decide whether to adapt based on the relative profitability of maintaining access to the EU market.
Implementation:
- For country–commodity combinations with EFSA detections:
- Exporters are classified into adapting and non-adapting groups according to a profitability switching rule.
- Exporters that do not adapt reduce their exports to the EU proportionally to the cumulative EFSA detection rate. See table of country-commodity pairs affected here
- Exporters that adapt maintain access to the EU market by modifying production practices. See table of country-commodity pairs affected here
- Adaptation is represented
through an increase in production costs equivalent to:
5% × cumulative EFSA detection rate
- Detection rates are calculated using the raw EFSA information, aggregating both the number of detections and the number of tests to capture the cumulative importance of residues.
- The scenario assumes that the active substances responsible for the detected residues are used only on the share of production associated with the observed detections.
- When no EFSA detections are observed, no trade restrictions or adaptation costs are applied.
3. Adaptation Based on Profitability Switching – 20% Additional Cost with EFSA + Use-authorisation Scaling
This scenario represents a case combining profitability-based adaptation decisions with higher adaptation costs and a broader measure of pesticide use intensity.
Implementation:
- For country–commodity combinations with EFSA detections or evidence of active substance use:
- Exporters are classified into adapting and non-adapting groups according to the profitability switching rule.
- Non-adapting exporters reduce their exports to the EU according to the estimated exposure to non-approved active substances. See table of country-commodity pairs affected here
- Adapting exporters maintain market access by modifying production practices. See table of country-commodity pairs affected here
- Adaptation is represented
through an increase in production costs equivalent to:
20% × estimated exposure
- Exposure rates combine both EFSA residue detections and information on active substance authorizations.
- For each active substance:
- The observed EFSA detection rate is used whenever available.
- If there is no detection rate, but authorisation of use, we adopt the median detection rate for the same type of active substance within the corresponding world region.
- A minimum value of 20% is imposed to avoid low exposure estimates.
- Country–commodity exposure rates are aggregated as follows:
- The average of the adjusted active-substance detection rates is calculated.
- An additional 5 percentage points are added for each active substance detected or authorised.
- If any individual detection rate is above the sum of: (1) the average of the detection rates and (2) additional 5% for each AS detected or authorized, we take that figure
- When neither EFSA detections nor authorization information are available, no trade restrictions or adaptation costs are applied.
The results presented in this dashboard should be interpreted as scenario-based assessments rather than forecasts. Their objective is to explore possible market responses and identify sectors, countries, and commodities that may be most affected by alternative policy designs.
This dashboard presents data as obtained from the original sources and is valid only as of the date of extraction (February 2026). The data presented does not translate into any policy decision or priorities.
