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What happens to GHG emissions if exports of a product or service change?
This interactive tool is based on SAMs, and provides the change in GHG emissions that would be generated by an exogenous shock in final demand for the selected commodities. This number accounts for direct, indirect and induced effects, calculated after (an infinite) feedback effects.
The shock can be introduced in two ways:
- As percentage increase/decrease in the initial value of final demand.
- As an increase/decrease in the absolute value of final demand.
Shocks can be introduced in several sectors simultaneously as the effects are independent of each other. The results show the variation in GHG emissions in each of the sectors shocked and the aggregate variation.
The calculations are based on the assumption that external trade, investment and public expenditure are exogenous (not model-dependent), therefore the demand shock may refer to either of these variables (although the shock in percentage term is performed, for sake of simplicity, only as a reference to current exports).
The results are subject to several assumptions such as: constant prices and fixed technology production functions (Leontief type) and do not take into account variations or changes in other socio-economic variables. Results should therefore not be interpreted as an accurate forecast, but as an indicator of which commodities have the highest potential and in which sectors.